Nolan ArenadoThe no-trade clause was the most obvious obstacle for the Cardinals in their attempts to trade a third baseman over the past two seasons, as Arenado (especially in the winter of 2024-25) had a very short list of acceptable landing spots. It didn’t help that Arenado was also owed a lot of money, and St. Louis ended up eating $31MM of the $42MM left on the third baseman’s contract when Arenado finally agreed to a trade with the Diamondbacks last January.
The biggest image problem hovering over the situation, however, was the fact that Arenado looked like a player in decline. After a great 2022 season with cards that saw Arenado finish third in NL MVP voting, Arenado slumped to a 107 wRC+ in 2023, then a 102 wRC+ in 2024, then a dismal 84 wRC+. It was the third time in Arenado’s career that he has pitched a below-average offense, the other two being his 2013 rookie season with the Rockies, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
Despite the impressive strikeout rate, Arenado’s 2025 numbers were awful. He hit .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs over 436 plate appearances in what ended up being his final season in St. Louis. Arenado’s numbers in those two categories were very similar in 2024, making it back-to-back seasons of diminished power.
On the other hand, Arenado’s third base glovework was still solid, even if it had declined since his early Platinum Glove years. So in reversing that trade with the Cardinals, the D’Backs can at least count on Arenado for solid defense and a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Even if Arenado’s bat was a question mark, it was a flight the Diamondbacks were willing to take given the low $11MM price tag ($5MM in 2026, $6MM in 2027) and the fact that Arizona couldn’t land third base targets like that. Alex Bregman or Brendan Donovan.
Two months into the season, Arenado seems to have benefited from the change of scenery. The 35-year-old has turned back the clock to some degree by hitting .275/.357/.462 with seven home runs over 196 PA, which translates to a 130 wRC+. If Arenado can keep this streak going for a full year, the 130 wRC+ would tie the third-highest mark of his 14-year major league career.
There was some speculation that going to Chase Field might spark Arenado’s bat, and sure enough, he did a lot of damage in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Arenado has a .934 OPS across 94 home PA, as opposed to a .711 OPS in 102 PA away from Phoenix.
His overall .360 wOBA is also significantly higher than his .339 xwOBA, so some decline is probably inevitable (although .339 is still comfortably above league average). Arenado still isn’t connecting with big authority, as his barrel rate is up from 4% in 2025 to 6.5%, and his fastball rate has dropped from 32.6% last year to 31.9% this year. Although he still makes a lot of contact, Arenado’s 17.9% strikeout rate is still the second highest of his career.
However, when Arenado repeated the ball, he capitalized. According to Statcast’s angle sweet spot metric, Arenado’s number has reached 38.4% this season, which puts him in the 81st percentile of all hitters. (By comparison, Arenado’s 31.5 LAS% in 2025 is 16 percent.)
All of this success comes after a rough opening two weeks of the season, as Arenado started his D’Backs career with a .392 OPS over his first 52 plate appearances. It was around this time that Arenado and the hitting coaches made some swing changes, with the third baseman telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he was incorporating too much head movement and not enough of his back hip while swinging. A new pre-game route is also being introduced with the aim of, as Arenado puts it, “I try to see the shapes and pitches before I get in the box, so when I get in the box, it doesn’t feel like I’m doing it for the first time.”
Time will tell if Arenado can keep this streak going long term, even though his hot streak has been going on for about a month and a half. Arenado’s production basically took away the extended drop from shortstop Geraldo Perdomoand it helped keep the Snakes in the wild card spot and a game behind the Padres in second place in the NL West.
Even if Arenado starts to cool down, the D’Backs don’t need him to be an All-Star in his prime – they just need him to produce like a $5MM player. Rather than looking like a plan B or C for the Diamondbacks’ third base needs, the Arenado trade now looks like a good deal for the Snakes, and the best move of the Arizona offseason.
