Ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen in Musandam, Oman, on June 15, 2026.
Character | Reuters
It will take weeks to clear the backlog of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, industry executives and shipping experts have warned, as the vital waterway is set to reopen.
Oil prices initially dipped below $80 per barrel on news that the US and Iran had agreed to a deal to end their war, as traders eyed the return of oil, LNG and other supplies after nearly four months of war caused a glut of maritime traffic unable or unwilling to pass through the Strait.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. It is necessary to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without payment by Iran for at least 60 days.
But restoring enough physical supply to the market to keep prices in the low $80s stable could take weeks, and in some cases months, market watchers told CNBC.
Operators, port authorities and energy companies across the Gulf remain involved, with key planning and security questions still unresolved.
“The most likely scenario is a phased restart, with some kind of traffic management approach that includes Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.
“But the unresolved questions are important: whether ships need prior approval, whether Iran will impose tariffs, whether escorting foreign ships is acceptable, and whether mines or other residual hazards require an authorization process.”
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz is complicated
Even after a political agreement to reopen the Strait, industry stakeholders say resuming traffic will be complicated and planned.
“There is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after a disruption of this nature,” Sharpe said. “A more conservative approach would be to gradually increase rather than quickly return to 100-plus daily walks.”
Before the war, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed a weekly Strait of Hormuz cargo traffic of approximately 650 to 770 vessels, which equates to approximately 90 to 110 sailings per day in both directions.
Economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology told CNBC its shipping data has not shown a meaningful increase in oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Iraq.
In Saudi Arabia’s Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export mall, ships have been loaded and sent abroad to wait, according to Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube.
“Since June 8, tankers from Dammam have spent a long time waiting before they can leave,” he told CNBC. “This suggests that the shipping line may have been built along the coast and not in the harbor areas.”
Most of the UAE’s trade flows through Hormuz involve “going dark,” where ships turn off their GPS systems to avoid detection. Kpler said the black smuggling operation is likely to continue until Washington and Tehran reach a clear understanding on freedom of movement.
How big is the backlog of Hormuz ships?
Even if electricity supply flows recover quickly, supply chain disruptions can continue. In a letter published on Monday, Kpler estimated that 118 tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf..
Kpler analysts estimated that the backlog could take 10 to 15 days to clear, but warned that this would not equate to a full recovery. The first increase, they said in the note, would be “automatic,” bringing “an early spike without raising output.”
When hundreds of ships are waiting to pass through the Strait, prioritization becomes critical. Industry experts expect oil tankers and LNG carriers to get priority access due to their importance in global markets, which could leave shipping containers and other goods facing long delays.
“Prioritization may not be the only trade,” Sharpe said. “Authorities may also take into account the vessel’s location, route, flag, ownership, perceived political risk, type of cargo, security status, and whether the vessel has already submitted the required shipping information.”
“The biggest uncertainty is whether this will be dealt with openly or through short-term operational decisions,” he added.
Traders and producers in the region are already reporting high prices for raw materials and delays in shipments, underscoring how fast the Hormuz disruption is affecting the region’s economy.
Insurance companies and security checks are important
Before traffic can return to normal, the navy needs to ensure safe transport corridors, which is expected to take at least several days. War risk insurers must restore coverage, otherwise the ships will not move. Authorities in Oman, the UAE and Iran will also need to coordinate shipping routes, convoy systems or transit windows, while ships and crews scheduled to divert or be delayed must be refueled, refueled and organized.
“Underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable work environment: consistent safe travel, no distractions, clear mining risk, and no renewed escalation,” Sharpe said. He added that prices will always be very sensitive to the ship’s flag, ownership, Israel or US nexus, trading history and cargo.
“The underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe flow, no disruptions, clarity on mining risk, and no renewed escalation. Current rates will remain highly sensitive to flag, ownership, Israel or US nexus, trade history and assets. Long-term reductions in additional premiums will depend on strong historical confidence that volume changes are not a variable.”
“Long-term reductions in additional premiums will depend on historic traffic volumes and confidence that the reopening will not be delayed,” he said.
There is also a security component, where Iran and the US need to coordinate on demining, another process that could slow things down.
“Until there is full certainty that there are no mines, the process will be slow and will take several weeks as a small area is safely located,” Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at marine investment manager Tufton, told CNBC in an email. “Once mine clearance is confirmed, it could be less than a week. But I have a feeling that many will be cautious at first.”
Sharpe pointed to the Red Sea as a cautionary comparison, saying many operators remain reluctant to return even after signs that the Houthis have stopped firing on ships, despite continued evidence of safety.
When is shipping through Hormuz normal?
Kpler said most production from the Middle East returns in weeks rather than months, but when that production can be shipped is another question.
Much will depend on how quickly the authorities, insurance companies and shipping companies can coordinate the reopening and resume the flow of goods. Clearing the first 10 to 15 days of tank backlogs may cause a noticeable increase in traffic, but a return to normal may take longer if insurance premiums remain high, fleet inspections are slow or operators remain cautious.
What does reopening oil prices mean
Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast following Trump’s announcement of the deal, lowering its forecast for Brent to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, from $90 previously, to $75 on average in 2027. But in the near term, prices may remain under pressure.
In a note published on June 16, Goldman said the “recovery could be strong” and estimated that Gulf flows had increased to 11 million barrels per day, with increases in both flows and the redirection of Hormuz.
