Trump’s Iran deal brings important benefits to Tehran, Washington

President Donald Trump on Thursday slammed criticism over the terms of the US-Iran peace deal, saying those who think he has not been strong enough in Tehran are either “jealous, bad people or stupid.”

His comments come shortly after the US and Iranian presidents electronically signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, including in Lebanon, and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The deal sees both sides commit to continuing negotiations to reach a final deal in the next 60 days and includes a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran and the removal of “all forms” of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

The interim agreement has led many to conclude that the terms seem to have strengthened Tehran’s hand.

“These idiots, who think I wasn’t tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market just hit a RECORD HIGH, and oil prices are ‘down’, they can be jealous, bad people, or stupid,” Trump said Thursday on his True Social platform.

The US stock market recently hit a new record high and oil prices fell on news of the Iran peace deal, although they remain well above pre-war levels.

Iranian leaders are widely seeking to frame the deal as a strategic victory. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the MOU as an opportunity to address Iran’s economic and political problems, saying it could help create a “different world” in Iran and the Middle East.

“I think it’s fair to say that, at least what we’ve been given in terms of the 14-point plan, the language is very favorable or very favorable to Iran,” Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Thursday.

“There are many details that still need to be worked out. For example, the speed at which ships will be allowed, right?” Sen said, referring to the language in the MOU about the US lifting its shipping embargo and Iran making arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels.

Under the MOU, Iran says it will allow safe passage of commercial vessels without tolls for only 60 days. The country will then hold talks with Oman “to define future management and maritime services” in the Strait of Hormuz in dialogue with other Gulf states.

In justifying an interim peace deal with Iran, Trump reaffirmed his view that Tehran should never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon.

He said, however, that Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, gain access to billions of dollars in frozen funds and be allowed to develop ballistic missiles. All of these issues are testing what have so far been the red lines of the Trump administration.

The US president, attending a meeting of G7 leaders in France, said he hoped the agreement would bring peace to the region and reduce oil prices. He also threatened that they will attack Iran again if they fail to honor their commitments.

“If you don’t follow through on the deal, I don’t want to do it, but we’re going to blow the hell out of you,” Trump said at a press conference.

Trump’s interim deal with Iran has raised questions about whether his peace deal with Tehran was worth four months of war. It also invited comparisons to former US President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Tehran.

Trump rejected the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was agreed upon in 2015 under the Obama administration, during his first term, calling it a “disgrace” to him as an American citizen.

Speaking to ABC News in an interview on Sunday, ahead of the announcement of the new deal, Obama said he was “doubtful” any deal with Iran put forward by the Trump administration would be “significantly different” than the JCPOA.

Holger Schmieding, Berenberg’s chief economist, said that while the final decision depends on the full details of the framework agreement, Iran “seems to have succeeded in most numbers” based on what has been reported so far.

Indeed, the war in Iran appears to be strengthening rather than weakening the Revolutionary Guards’ hold over Iran, Schmieding said Thursday in a research note, despite the Iranian regime suppressing the uprising in January by killing thousands of protesters.

He identified three geopolitical conclusions from the experience of the last 100 days.

Despite the intense bombing campaign, “the US has failed to achieve some of its stated goals including regime change in Tehran. This may weaken the US geopolitical position,” Schmieding said.

The conflict also showed, as in the Russia-Ukraine war, how a small power with air-powered aircraft can thwart the military ambitions of a superpower, Schmieding said.

Third, just as the rise in oil prices temporarily restored Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence, the recent correction in oil prices will now hurt Moscow. “If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Russia’s financial situation will worsen again,” Schmieding said.

The National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a Washington DC-based advocacy group focused on improving relations between the US and Iran, described the deal as “the most important achievement since the outbreak of war” on Feb. 28.

“But while momentum is building after the agreement, its future remains uncertain,” NIAC said in a post published on Wednesday.

“While senior officials in Tehran and Washington are presenting the agreement as a way to end the conflict and open a new phase of negotiations, we are facing strong opposition from Israel, Washington’s hardliners, and the Iranian opposition,” he said.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst of Middle East risks at intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said Tehran would retain “huge leverage” when negotiators turn to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile threat and support for armed groups in the wider region.

“Previous negotiations have always been a threat to naval and energy infrastructure, but the level of disruption over the past three and a half months will strengthen Iran’s hand,” Soltvedt said in a research note published earlier this week.