Vice President JD Vance on Thursday defended the initial ceasefire agreement with Iran as “a victory for the American people.” But he relied in part on a series of wishful, vague and misleading claims about the deal.
Mr. Vance, speaking at the White House, sought to counter criticism that the deal would reward and embolden Iran without ensuring that the United States achieves the ambitious goals set by President Trump at the start of the war. The vice president asserted that Iran would have little to gain if it did not agree to US demands in the next round of talks, which could begin as soon as Friday and would include Iran’s nuclear program.
“We have all the cards,” said Mr. Vance, adding, “If they change their behavior, big things will happen in Iran and in the world.
The deal, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, appeared to provide some economic relief to Americans on Thursday, as oil and gas prices fell to levels not seen since the early days of the war. Mr. Vance highlighted the development as he continues his prominent role as the protector of the treaty.
But he tried to divert attention from the text of the memorandum of understanding released by the two sides on Wednesday, which appeared to offer Iran many immediate benefits. He has worked to focus on what he insists will be a positive outcome for the United States in the upcoming round of negotiations for a final agreement.
“Words mean nothing, ladies and gentlemen,” said Mr. Vance. “We’ll make sure.”
Here’s a look at the vice president’s major arguments in favor of the deal.
Selling Oil
Mr. Vance said one immediate concession in the memorandum of understanding — lifting oil sanctions on Iran — is “not a new advantage” for the country.
The claim ignores that the economic sanctions that existed before the war forced Iran to use repressive measures to sell oil. The sanctions have forced Iran to sell its oil at a steep discount to market prices, especially to Chinese refineries that were willing to risk circumventing US sanctions.
Now, under its first agreement with the United States, Iran will be able to sell its oil at a higher price, and to more buyers. The country will also receive payment in an attractive currency.
Mr. Vance was right that lifting the US embargo on Iran’s oil would allow the country’s sales to return to pre-war levels – assuming it still had the production capacity to do so – so it was unlikely that Iran would sell more oil than before the war, at least initially.
The Nuclear Program
In the memorandum, Iran reiterated its longstanding commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, a commitment the United States and its allies have long taken for granted. But the deal does not resolve the question of whether Iran will retain the right to enrich uranium, something Tehran has long insisted on. It is unclear whether Iran will be able to maintain uranium stockpiles after the final deal goes into effect.
Mr. Vance expressed confidence that the final agreement will include terms consistent with Mr. Trump to ensure that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, and that Iran will not benefit from the changes promised in the memorandum if it does not comply with American demands.
“They promised not to enrich, they promised to allow the inspectors to destroy that highly enriched stock,” said Mr. Vance. “That’s why the agreement looks at a lot of benefits if they do those things, but it doesn’t do anything if they don’t fulfill those promises.”
That this agreement does not spell the future of high-grade and low-grade uranium is noteworthy, especially because Mr. Trump said the 2015 Obama-era Iran deal rewarded Tehran financially while lifting the country’s limits on enrichment.
One clause in the first agreement of Mr. Trump’s talk of a nuclear program requires Iran to “compile down” — in effect reduce — the roughly 11 tons of enriched nuclear material it has, including 970 pounds that are 60 percent enriched, just short of bomb-grade. But it doesn’t require Iran to give up those things and export them.
Under the Obama-era deal, Iran sent about 97 percent of its goods to Russia.
Mr. Vance still argues that Iran would not be able to rebuild its nuclear program without “a lot of money.”
Financial Benefits
The memorandum commits the United States to support the establishment of a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, and opens the door to unfreezing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets held around the world.
The memorandum also calls for the lifting of international sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy for years, contingent on a final deal.
Critics say the memorandum amounts to a handout, with no guarantee that the United States gets anything in return.
Mr. Vance emphasized that the United States will not contribute money to the reconstruction fund. Financial benefits from the deal, he said, will only be available to Iran if it complies “fully” with the conditions the United States would demand as part of the final deal, and if the country chooses to “change its behavior.”
But the memorandum says the United States will freeze assets and release restricted funds “upon implementation of this MOU.”
Ballistic missiles
The original deal was silent on curbing Iran’s missile program, a major concern for Israel and a goal set by administration officials in the early days of the war. Iran’s missile program has allowed it to reach targets across the region, including Israel.
Asked about this issue, Mr.
That’s a change from the administration, which in March described the destruction of Iran’s missiles as one of the war’s goals. “The United States is engaged in a campaign to eliminate Iran’s short-range ballistic missile threat,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
That objective, according to US intelligence estimates, was not achieved in the first two months of the war. While Mr. While Vance said on Thursday that much of Iran’s military had been “destroyed,” a US intelligence report estimated that Iran had retained about 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile as of last month. Mr. Vance argued that the total number of missiles is important under the ballistic missile scenario.
Iran, however, is still showing that it can fire missiles, and its Gulf neighbors have felt threatened enough that they have urged the United States to sign a peace deal.
The challenge is Israel
Mr. Vance appeared eager to respond to criticism from Israeli lawmakers, who echoed some Republicans in Washington who said the deal gave Iran economic freedom and did not address its nuclear program.
Mr. Vance issued a direct warning to Israel, particularly to members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet who attacked Mr.
“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the world who has sympathy for the nation of Israel at this time,” said Mr. Vance. He added: “If I were in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I would not attack the only powerful alliance I have left in the world.”
Mr. Vance also expressed support for the agreement in other Gulf countries, as he tried to dissuade journalists from criticizing Israel.
“I often think that you have to trust the people who know the Iranian people better and who have lost more,” said Mr. Vance. “What do the Gulf Arab states say about this agreement?”
However, analysts say that officials in the region are expressing great frustration with the deal, especially because it does not talk about Iran’s missile program that has attacked airports, power plants, hotels and military facilities in the region.
Jonathan Swan reporting contributed.
