A Special Forces soldier in Polymarket Maduro is betting on the charges that come out
The Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen, Jan. 11, 2026, New York.
Wyatte Grantham-Philips | AP
An Army Special Forces soldier charged with placing lucrative bets at Polymarket related to the U.S. military raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was released Friday on $250,000 unsecured bond after appearing in federal court in Raleigh, NC.
Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was ordered to appear Tuesday in US District Court in Manhattan, where he was charged with fraud and other charges related to his alleged use of confidential information about a scheme to win nearly $410,000 in bets and attempt to cover up the scheme.
Kalshi, Polymarket’s leading competitor in the prediction markets sector, confirmed on Friday that it had banned Van Dyke from opening a Kalshi account.
Elisabeth Diana, spokeswoman for Kalshi, said she could not provide information on when Van Dyke, 38, tried to open the account or why he was prevented from doing so.
Van Dyke, who has served in the military since 2008, was arrested Thursday in North Carolina, where he is based at Fort Bragg.
Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing the attack on Jan. 3 in Caracas that ended with US Special Forces abducting Maduro and his wife and putting them on a Navy ship to be sent to the US, where they face federal drug charges in the same court where Van Dyke was recently indicted, prosecutors said.
A week before the attack, Van Dyke opened a Polymarket account and began making a series of wagers on contracts on the question of whether US troops would be in Venezuela on Jan. 31, whether Maduro will be gone on that day and related questions, the case says.
He allegedly wagered nearly $33,000 on more than a dozen bets, according to a lawsuit prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates the futures markets, has charged Van Dyke separately in a civil complaint with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act in connection with the alleged betting.
The prediction market argument
Van Dyke’s arrest is the latest in a series of controversies involving betting markets, whose growing popularity has raised concerns about gambling addiction and insiders using their knowledge to place bets on event contracts.
On Friday, Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, introduced a bill that would prevent US senators from trading in futures markets.
On Wednesday, a day before Van Dyke was arrested, Kalshi revealed that he had fined and suspended one candidate for the Senate and two candidates for the House of Representatives for trading in their campaigns.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a small investment by CNBC.
