A Ferrari SF90 XX Spider limited edition hybrid supercar is parked on the pavement as a red Ferrari drives past on Bond Street on January 4, 2026 in London, United Kingdom.
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A global shortage of crude oil is starting to hit luxury carmakers, with analysts and industry groups warning that stocks could run out quickly if the war on Iran continues.
The ongoing disruption through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has caused what the International Energy Agency has described as “the biggest threat to energy security in history,” although the supply shock goes beyond crude oil, fertilizer and helium.
Base oils are the main component used to produce high-performance lubricants for motor oils and industrial fluids.
Group III and Group IV base oils, such as polyalphaolefins (PAO), are the main components of finished synthetic oils used for automotive purposes, with PAO being the most important in luxury cars.
Stocks will dry up in a month if nothing comes in and that will just cut production of the finished lubricants.
Gabriella Twining
head of oil prices at Argus Media
The Gulf region accounts for about 20% of Group III base oil volume and accounted for 72% and 47% of Group III imports by Europe and the US, respectively, last year, according to Argus Media.
Big cars, more common in big cities like London, Monte Carlo and Los Angeles, rely on these niche products because they can withstand high heat, high revolutions per minute (RPMs) and high pressure.
“The lead is in the name, like, basically, they’re the basis of all the finished lubricants for cars, industrial, aircraft, marine … you name it, if something’s moving, it’s going to need a lubricant and it’s made of base oil,” Gabriella Twining, head of oil prices at Argus Media, told CNBC in a phone interview.
Motor oil is sold next to packs of cigarettes at a stop at the Bara taxi station in Soweto near Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026.
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In recent weeks, oil prices analyzed by Argus have soared to record highs, while Group III crude oil prices in northern Europe have risen nearly 100% since the start of the Iran war.
It comes amid prolonged disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Shell’s Pearl Gas-To-Liquid facility in Qatar due to Iranian missile strikes and declarations of “force majeure” by producers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
South Korea, the global leader in crude oil production and the largest exporter of Group III crude oil, recently introduced mandatory export obligations on refined oil products, seeking to bolster domestic oil supplies amid the crisis.
“This historic price increase has to be paid for by somebody and that will be passed on to the consumer of finished lubricants and the consumer of finished lubricants,” Twining said.
“Stocks will run out in a month if nothing comes in and that will reduce the production of lubricating oil. You can postpone the oil change but it will be more expensive and the supply will be reduced,” he added.
Rico Luman, senior sector economist specializing in transportation and logistics at ING, said the current tight oil market and the heavy oil presence in Asia and the Middle East will “definitely” lead to a reduction in supply.
There are stocks of these “relatively low-margin products further down the supply chain, but delivery times may increase, risking replenishment. And, of course, prices will see the effect of Asia’s dependence on general oil price increases,” Luman told CNBC by email.
‘It’s productive and sobering’
The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) described the recent meeting with US lawmakers about the difficulty of the disruption of the basic oil supply as “productive and sobering, all parties agreeing to the severity of the situation and the lack of clear solutions at hand.”
The group, which noted about 44% of US oil supply typically comes from the Persian Gulf, said on April 8 that market impacts were already emerging, with disruptions emerging in many sectors.
ILMA, which represents independent oil producers, also said it expects the US oil market to remain under pressure until at least 2027, with members looking at rising costs throughout the supply chain.
ILMA CEO Holly Alfano said the oil industry is currently facing three interrelated pressures, noting that nearly 40% of the world’s Group III supply from the Persian Gulf was offline or unable to be shipped, South Korean refiners were besieged by undue shortages, and refiners were diverting Group II feedstock to gasoline.
“Overall, these forces put nearly three-quarters of US Group III imports under pressure, while also eroding the industry’s ability to substitute Group II oil,” Alfano told CNBC in an email.
“Adding to the risk, we’re entering hurricane season—even a single hurricane that hits the Gulf Coast can take out 30-40% of US Group II capacity and an additional 10% of Group III capacity, and tightens an already strained supply chain,” he added.
