Keir Starmer’s push for the EU is facing a harsh reality after the local election

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Next month it will be ten years since Britain voted to leave the European Union but, as last week’s local election showed, the vote continues to cast a long shadow.

The results highlighted the extent to which support for the ruling Labor party has split along lines echoing the poll.

Younger Labor voters, particularly in London and university towns, defected in many cases to the EU Green Party.

But an even larger number of conservative white working-class voters in Wales, Scotland and the north of England – Labour’s traditional base of support – switched to Reform, the rebel party founded by Nigel Farage, a prominent Brexit campaigner.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as he fights to save his prime ministership, promises to set out a “new direction for Britain” at his summit with the EU in July.

“The last government was defined by breaking our relationship with Europe,” he said. “This Labor government will be defined by rebuilding our relationship with Europe by putting Britain at the heart of Europe so that we are strong in the economy, strong in trade, strong in defence.”

That doesn’t sound like the kind of platform to lure a former Labor voter in Sunderland, St Helens or Barnsley – all former Labor-run councils that fell to Reform – back.

The big question, for businesses and investors, is what Starmer meant by rebuilding the relationship.

In his speech, he spoke about rejoining Erasmus, the EU program that funds international placements in education and training, symbolizing “an ambitious youth program that will be the core of our new program with the EU … so that our young people can work and study and live in Europe”.

Significantly, however, Starmer has done nothing to suggest that he will withdraw from manifesto commitments that exclude freedom of movement between Britain and the EU or join the EU’s single market or customs union.

That’s more cautious than many in his group would like. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, wants to rejoin the EU. So is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who is considered a leading contender to succeed Starmer even though he is not currently an MP.

Instead, the government appears to be supporting what is, in Whitehall jargon, called “strong alignment.”

For example, at the July conference, Starmer wants to conclude agreements that will finally remove border checks on plant and animal products after agreeing to comply with EU rules on food standards.

There are also hopes of reviving talks to exempt British businesses from paying for the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which has so far not proved possible.

In addition, the government has agreed to negotiate Britain’s participation in the EU electricity market.

The King’s speech today is widely expected to include some legislation that resets relations with the EU.

But the reset will be difficult, as evidenced by the ongoing negotiations for Britain to join the EU’s €140 billion ($164 billion) Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund.

It is also dangerous. Newspapers and politicians who support Brexit are wary of any attempts to return Britain to the path of Brussels, as they see it, while the narrow approach will not satisfy the young voters who will not accept anything less than rejoining.

Yet this cautious, soft approach has been a hallmark of Starmer’s premiership.

It’s hard to see him changing that, with his position at 10 Downing Street hanging in the balance.

— Ian King

UK MPs turn on PM Starmer – Analysts now say he is unlikely to last a year. Analysts have played down the chances of Starmer facing a leadership challenge in September.

UK government borrowing costs rise to highest since 2008 as PM Starmer pressured to quit. The benchmark 10-year gilt yield jumped 10 basis points on Tuesday to trade around 5.103%.

Whiskey business: Investors are hoping for a reversal of Trump’s Scotch tax after three difficult years. President Trump’s decision to drop tariffs on Scotch whiskey could boost the market for premium Scotch — including sweet cask investment land.

– Holly Elliott

MAY 14: UK growth data for the first quarter

MAY 19: UK unemployment rate in March

MAY 20: UK inflation data for April