Canadians’ boycott of the US, fueled largely by hatred of President Donald Trump, his industry-destroying tariffs and mockery of the 51st state, has actually been more effective than previously thought, according to new data.
While Statistics Canada’s official figures show a nearly 25 percent drop in Canadian citizens returning from the US last year, cellphone data compiled by researchers at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities found that the year-over-year drop in cross-border travel was closer to 42 percent.
The researchers analyzed data from Canadian mobile devices traveling in US municipalities between April 1, 2025 – the day Trump famously called “freedom day” as he imposed global tariffs – and March 31, 2026.
They found that the decline was even more dramatic in other warm climate areas that had been hotspots for Canadians fleeing the winter climate.
In Myrtle Beach, SC, the number of trips by Canadians fell 65 percent year-over-year, according to cellphone data, giving it the dubious title of the metro area with the biggest decline.
In the Florida cities of Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami and Naples, the number of Canadian visitors dropped by 50 percent or more.
But the demand for cratering was not recorded only in those sunny areas. Trips to San Francisco, New York, Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids, Mich., Boston and other business centers also fell by more than half, according to the data.
In fact, of the 267 US cities analyzed by researchers, only three – Cleveland, Portland, Ore., and Gainesville, Fla. – showed an increase in Canadian tourism last year.
In an interview with CBC News, Karen Chapple, lead researcher and director of the Urban School, said the decline in tourism in popular destinations like Orlando, as well as border communities like Buffalo, NY, is well documented.
What his cell phone data makes clear is that the Canadian boycott is affecting cities big and small across the States — and it’s not just the leisure travel that’s over.
The self-imposed travel ban has also extended to high-tech, financial and industrial centers, indicating that cross-border businesses and trade patterns have fundamentally changed over the past year.
“I was using the term ‘sea change,'” Chapple said of the data he and his team found.
“And the places that are most affected by prices are the most affected by the loss of travel,” he said, pointing to certain Michigan cities such as Flint that have commercial ties to Ontario’s auto industry. “This decline is really related to the makeup of the local economy.”
And with other data showing that return travel from international countries is high, Chapple said that Canadian businesses may be doing more work abroad as the American market is no longer hospitable.
“Some people say, ‘You know what, I’m actually going to make a deal with the Netherlands or China instead of Texas,'” he said.
Chapple said his data is more granular than the Canada Border Services Agency can compile and report to StatsCan.
For example, one thing Chapple observed is that Canadians visit fewer places when they travel to the US.
“People don’t visit many metros, and maybe people come for that quick trip to see grandma, but they don’t make the trip to work or play,” she said.
Cell phone data also includes freight-related trips by truck drivers, which are often excluded from government “round trip” statistics that are widely used to measure cross-border visits.
The US Travel Association last year said a 10 percent drop in tourism to Canada would cost the U.S. economy about $2.1 billion.
If Chapple’s data is an accurate representation of what’s happening, that means Canadians holding back on US travel could cost the US economy about $8.4 billion and counting.
Speaking at a political conference that took place last weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney applauded the efforts of Canadians to resist the Americans as the trade dispute with Trump intensified.
“Canadians have been determined to do good – buy Canada, visit their country,” he said, adding that the downward movement of shunning other foreign goods has encouraged the government to choose domestic firms in its procurement process.
“These are things that seem small but are incredibly important,” Carney said.
The decline in cross-border movement has been a big change for some Canadian businesses that depend on travel.
Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, a trade group that represents many of the family-owned stores that dot the Canadian border, said the drop figures are more believable than StatsCan’s data, based on how much sales have fallen at some of her member stores.
“It’s really sad, that’s what we’re seeing on the ground,” Barrett said in an interview shortly after going on a Zoom call with store owners to get an update on the situation.
“There was no hope for this call. We have a few members who are very much looking to close the doors if things don’t really change,” he said.
He added that some stores in more remote areas have seen sales drop by 80 percent since 2019, the last time things were “normal” at the border.
Although it was expected that things might turn around now, almost 15 months into this boycott the business situation remains bad.
“It’s just down, down, down,” she said.
The Canadian boycott was particularly damaging to the Las Vegas gambling scene where visitors from the north have historically been a major source of foreign tourism.
But new data released by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority shows Mexican visitors nearly outnumbered Canadians last year as the gap between the two groups narrowed significantly.
According to historical figures reviewed by CBC News, this is the first time outside of COVID that the number of visitors from Mexico has nearly surpassed those from Canada.
Last year, 1,196,300 Canadians visited Sin City, a 17 percent decrease from the previous year. During that time, the population of Mexico had increased by about 1 percent year-on-year, according to tourism authorities.
The latest data from Harry Reid International Airport also shows that declining demand has not improved so far this year.
WestJet, the airport’s largest carrier, dropped passengers by 22 percent in March compared to the same month last year.
The number of Air Canada passengers to Vegas is down 20 percent.
The decline was even more pronounced at Porter Airlines (50 percent) and Flair (68 percent), as they carried a few thousand passengers – a significant drop from previous passenger loads.
Those figures come even after some casinos began using promotions to lure Canadians back to the desert with the promise of favorable exchange rates.
This recent decline has prompted Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley to call for the disappearance of Canadian tourists.
“I’m telling every Canadian, please come. We love you, we need you and we miss you,” she said.
