A United Airlines flight approaches the runway at Denver International Airport on March 23, 2026.
Al Drago Getty Images
United Airlines cut its 2026 financial outlook on Tuesday as it faces rising jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, but Chief Executive Scott Kirby said demand remains strong.
United said it could earn between $7 and $11 per adjusted share this year, down from its previous forecast of between $12 and $14 a share issued in January, more than a month before the US and Israel attacked Iran.
Wall Street was already adjusting its expectations for this year due to the increase in gasoline. Analysts polled by LSEG had forecast United’s adjusted, full-year earnings to be $9.58 a share.
The carrier, like others, is cutting some of its scheduled flights this year to cut costs. Low capacity can increase airfares, with fewer seats on the market.
For the second quarter, United’s forecast adjusted earnings to between $1 and $2 per share. Analysts were expecting a dividend of $2.08 per quarter. United estimates that gasoline prices will be $4.30 a gallon in the second quarter.
The company said it expects revenue to cover between 40% and 50% of fuel price increases in the second quarter, up to 80% in the third quarter and between 85% and 100% by the end of the year.
United reiterated that it will adjust its plans to adapt to higher fuel, and capacity in the second half of the year is expected to decrease to about 2% annually. It grew by 3.4% in the first quarter.
Here’s what United Airlines reported for the quarter ended March 31 compared to Wall Street expectations, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.19 adjusted versus $1.07 expected
- Net worth: $14.61 billion versus $14.37 billion expected
Income, increase in profit
Total revenue rose more than 10%, to $14.61 billion, from $13.21 billion a year ago.
In the first quarter, United’s earnings rose 80% to $699 million, or 2.14 cents a share, compared with revenue of $387 million, or 1.16 cents a share, a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, United posted earnings per share of $1.19 per share.
Unit revenue was higher in all reported segments, including US domestic flights, where it rose 7.9% to $7.9 billion from a year ago, reflecting strong pricing power in the quarter.
Jet fuel in the US was going for $3.51 a liter on Monday, down from an April 2 high of $4.78, but up from $2.39 on Feb. 27, the day before the first attack on Iran, according to figures checked by Platts.
Airline officials said demand remained strong despite increased fares and bag-check fees as they passed on higher fuel prices to customers.
“Bookings are strong,” Kirby told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
United and the rest of the industry have come to rely heavily on travelers who are willing to shell out more for larger flights and seats, and who are less affected by price increases.
Alaska Airlines released its forecast for 2026 on Monday due to rising fuel prices. It raised fares by about $25, CEO Ben Minicucci told analysts on Tuesday.
Combining desires?
Kirby floated a possible merger as well American Airlines to the Trump administration earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the matter, but President Donald Trump has said he disagrees with the idea.
“I don’t like them being put together,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday morning. He said he would like someone to buy the struggling discount carrier Spirit, but he also suggested that the federal government “could help him.”
The American also dismissed the idea of a meeting with United last week.
When asked about the merger float, Kirby declined to confirm the meeting on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday but said: “We want to build a truly global airline.”
Kirby also expressed his opinion that the US is lacking in international air travel as customers fly to other countries, some of which are state-owned.
