This post is sponsored by The Branch. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the sponsors.
Does search AI actually replace SEO, or do I need to budget for both?
How do I rate conversions in ChatGPT vs. An overview of AI?
AI is advancing so quickly that it’s hard to keep track of changes, let alone know how to take action.
That’s why we surveyed 300 marketing executives from large enterprises to understand how they are responding to the search for AI and where their organizations stand.
The findings point to rapidly evolving technology, a majority of managers unwilling to change, and an infrastructure woefully unprepared to support the cacophony of technological changes we face.
DOWNLOAD THE FULL AI REPORT
Finding 1: SEO Is Not Dead & Search AI is Complementary (Not a Replacement)
Search AI is showing huge growth. From almost zero at the beginning of 2023, it is now an average of 35% of all websites.
In two years, AI search has managed to surpass decades of growth achieved by other channels. Naturally, the death of traditional SEO was a popular prediction. If consumers can get context-rich answers from a chatbot, why bother searching?
Like history, the results are complex and subtle. Data shows that traditional SEO’s share of web traffic is growing again. Respondents predicted that it will gain a total of 8 points in traffic share, from 45% in 2025 to 53% in 2026.
What does this mean?
Think about your personal interaction with a chatbot. You bounce ideas, get referred to recommended sites, and often do your follow-up searches. Just last night I asked ChatGPT for help packing for a trip to Iceland. After getting a solid lesson in my lack of a rain jacket, I headed to Google to find and buy one. ChatGPT was responsible for two or three website hits, Google two or three more.
AI search adds a new dimension to consumer discovery. Consumers can refine ideas or recommendations from chatbots and modify the search with a more refined query. It is not surprising that after the emergence of the chatbot, Google reports a more complex, multifaceted general search.
Embrace the Reality That Consumer Behavior (Intent) Is Closed Between Channels
After all, Google is at the heart of the difficulty of distinguishing traditional SEO from AI search. It deliberately blurs the distinction between search, AI Overview, and AI Mode, and to protect its position as the leader in search, it has good reasons for this. Search for a coffee maker in AI mode, and you’ll be served a sponsored post. Click on it, and you will see the UTM tracking link for the paid search campaign. Advertisers are starting to show up in AI search results, and they don’t even know it’s happening.
ChatGPT (as of today) only throws one UTM referral source with its traffic, leaving advertisers knowing that the traffic was taken from ChatGPT, but nothing else. Advertisers see very high intent traffic, but no referral context. To get even a glimpse at the top, marketers are turning to aggregating search logs to understand ChatGPT bot behavior on their websites.
You cannot fight these methods. It’s best to rely on your existing techniques while figuring out how to adapt to new technologies. Google Gemini ads are simple; if you use Search Ads, Google has probably already selected you to run them. Watch the results of your campaign and don’t be surprised when some outsiders change their behavior. Google will also use your Search Ads to find out what works for Gemini, you just need to provide the platform with assets to replicate in a new way.
ChatGPT is difficult, but not impossible. Treat ChatGPT referral traffic as high-intent users who are likely to pass the first stage of acquisition and enter the funnel well. Don’t risk forcing it into unnecessary funnels.
Beware of Conflicts Between SEO and Search AI
The technology behind SEO and AI is very different. Search ranks content by relevance; AI combines multiple signals to produce an answer. Often the same fundamentals apply to both technologies: machine-readable text, standards-based schemas, clarity, and community scores all signal quality in algorithms.
But sometimes they pull in opposite directions. In search, you can create two pages to target the exact opposite purpose. One page markets the car as “luxury”, while another calls the same car “affordable.” Search will target each page with a different purpose. LLM will aggregate all pages related to that product and confuse conflicting signals. Are you fancy or affordable?
To prepare for AI search, be aware of situations where SEO strategies actually work as a detriment to new technologies.
Finding 2: Marketers Bet Big Dollars on Search AI, But Struggle to Measure Results
As search AI grows in share, it’s no wonder marketers are setting aside budgets. Just amazing how much. Sixty-five percent of business executives dedicate at least 25% of their overall marketing budget to AI, with 28% allocating more than half. That’s an important commitment for a channel where advertising models are still being developed.
Marketers express confidence in measuring the results of these budgets, but a closer look reveals cracks. Two-thirds say they are more confident, and 80% say the definition of AI is clearer than traditional SEO.
But in a more detailed follow-up question, 66% also reported challenges with measurement basics. Less than 1 in 5 say they face no measurement challenges at all.
Mohammed Faizan of M&C Saatchi Performance suggests that the reason is that the current measurement is not appropriate: “Teams are confident in what they can see, and they can see the narrow, clean edge of the funnel: clear referrals from AI platforms, conversion of the last click. That’s not a measurement. That’s not a measurement. Your growth in named searches, your increase in direct traffic, your ‘inexplicable’ increase in conversion.”
This problem is about to get worse. Measuring referral traffic to ChatGPT is one thing; paying for it is another. As AI search reaches the paid channel, advertisers will need display frameworks that are not yet available.
If a buyer spends a week in chatbot conversations, doing searches, and running across retargeting ads, how do you call that a sale? The valuation gap that exists today will only widen as costs rise.
The good news is that there are steps you can take now.
Accept All Channels; Rate Anything You Can
Advertising has become a black box. Algorithms run by major ad platforms use large amounts of data to predict and serve the most relevant ads. As digital channels multiply, the number of potential touch points increases and measurement becomes murkier. Marketers will rely more on algorithms to model and display spend across their channels.
To feed these models, you need data. The more, the better. Measure organic traffic, paid search, LLM referrals, and all other sources you can use. A future model attribute will need that foundation.
Focus on Final Impact, Not Field Reporting
The more negative your measurement model is to actual results, the more likely you are to be misrepresented. Advertising has evolved from CPM to CPC to CPA, each year allowing advertisers to find more effective media sources. But now many channels want the same action.
The best way to avoid duplicate claims is not to share a model based on what each platform reports, it is to model the actual sales result from the platform investment. OpenAI may not be worth 10% of your budget just because they want 10% of your sales. A growth test would reveal that it actually drives 50% of sales. Reporting true performance takes the sting out of marketing an emerging technology.
Findings 3-5 in the Full Report
Marketers are poised to act quickly with AI: Most think they’ll be doing closed jobs on chatbots by the end of this year.
And so far, despite the negative news, AI is working as a net positive for marketers: Only 3% of respondents see negative marketing performance from AI. However, when asked about their vision for the future, anxiety outweighs their hope.
Download the full report to see how your competitors are actually spending, measuring, and ranking for AI search this year.
CHECK OUT THE AI DISCOVERY REPORT
Photo Credits
Featured Image: Image by Branch Used with permission.
Images Within Posts: Images by Branch. Used with permission.
