Prediction market firms are facing increased scrutiny as Congress weighs regulations
Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., talks to reporters outside the House Republican Conference at the US Capitol on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
Tom Williams CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
The leader of the congressional committee that oversees how the House works says he is working on legislation to not only prevent current lawmakers from making market predictions for betting on elections and politics but also wants to extend that to former federal officials and candidates for those offices.
Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wisc., who chairs the House administration committee, told reporters this week that he sees no problem with lawmakers betting on non-political events, such as sports results. But betting on elections and policies — topics where they can get insider information — will be banned from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
“There is a way to ensure that, now that these new and new markets are available to consumers in large print, we put that clearly in the rules,” he told reporters.
Officials from Kalshi and Polymarket, along with other traders on the site, met with lawmakers this week as part of a larger effort to make their case about how Washington deals with futures markets. In addition to legislation to address insider trading risks, lawmakers are considering how to deal with speculative markets based outside the US.
While the Senate has already changed its rules to prevent senators and their staff from betting on prediction markets, the House is looking to write an additional ban into law.
Although insider trading laws are already in place, Steil said it’s important for lawmakers to avoid being seen as using their elected office for personal gain.
Steil, who is working with House GOP leadership on his bill, plans to include the language in the bill that bars lawmakers from buying stocks. That bill came out of committee earlier this year but has not received a vote on the floor of the House even though the leadership promised that it would be voted on.
Steil said he also wants to see prediction markets “regulated in the United States, subject to United States standards, and that we protect consumers from foreign sales.”
Such a change would affect the largest prediction market, Polymarket, which currently prevents US users from its main exchange, although the company is working to find a legal place in the US.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates the futures markets and has argued in court and public statements that it, rather than other federal or state agencies, should have exclusive regulatory authority over the industry.
Polymarket and Kalshi supported the Senate’s move to ban lawmakers from betting. Kalshi also flagged and fined political candidates who used inside information of their races to make bets.
Although Steil plans to introduce his member betting law soon, the broader bills that regulate the market may take longer to materialize. Those will be under the House Agriculture Committee or the House Financial Services Committee.
While the legislative term is quickly expiring this year, there is interest among Democrats to put their own restrictions in place. When asked about the Senate rule change during the CNBC Executive Council Conference, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he thinks the House “will do the same thing.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a small investment.
