President Donald Trump is facing the risk that Iran will close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, a situation that could reduce the supply of oil to an already highly disrupted market.
Bab el-Mandeb is one of the most important trade points in the world, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. It acted as a relief valve in the oil market as shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz declined due to Iranian attacks on tankers and cargo ships.
Saudi Arabia increased oil flows on its East-West pipeline after the closure of Hormuz, redirecting millions of barrels a day to the Red Sea. Those barrels pass the Bab el-Mandeb to Asia, which has helped offset some of the lost supply to key economies like Japan and South Korea.
Oil and product shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2 million barrels per day in April compared to 3.9 million bpd in February before the US and Israel attacked Iran, according to data provided by Kpler.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened on Monday to close Bab el-Mandeb if Israel does not stop the strike in Gaza and Lebanon, according to the Iranian news agency Tasnim. Tehran has insisted that any peace deal with the US must include Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
Iran closing Bab el-Mandeb will cut off Saudi oil pipelines to Asia, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.
“That would be a step up in terms of growth and market impact,” Smith said. The flow of oil in the Red Sea is one of the factors that have kept crude prices from rising, he said.
Crude oil prices in the US rose 8% during the high session on Monday after Iran threatened against Bab el-Mandeb. The prices were pushed back after Israel and Lebanon agreed on Wednesday to implement a ceasefire, but the deal is still far from coming into effect.
Iran’s Lebanese Hezbollah, which operates independently of the government in Beirut, rejected the ceasefire agreement on Thursday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNBC on Wednesday that “we have to disarm Hezbollah and we have to take the war out of Lebanon.”
The ceasefire between the US and Iran remains fragile. Washington and Tehran exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. If the US escalates the war, Iran’s natural response will be to target Bab el-Mandeb, Smith said.
Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have largely come out of the war so far. The Houthis attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea from 2023 to 2025 in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb sank and has never fully recovered.
The Trump administration fought a 52-day air war against the Houthis that ended in May 2025 with a ceasefire. The US suspended its strikes so the military could end its attacks on US-flagged ships in the Red Sea.
The Houthis are likely to wait to enter the current conflict until the Iranian leadership decides to open another opportunity, said Jack Kennedy, head of country risk in the Middle East at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The Houthis would not have to do much to cut off traffic in Bab el-Mandeb, Smith said.
“They didn’t have to shoot at every tanker that passed by,” said the Kpler analyst. “Some specific targets will be enough to start blocking the way through there.”
