Slugger Munetaka Murakami he had to deal with a two-year “prove it” deal with the White Sox this past season. It’s early in the big league game, but he’s quick to prove it, which means the Sox must decide on a path forward.
Murakami’s power was never in doubt. His time in Japan produced a number of great moonshots. The strike was very concerning. He struck out about 30% of the time in his final NPB seasons. Coming to North America to deal with a large number of hits may lead to more hits. There has been some concern about his lack of success against top speed, which he would certainly see more of in MLB.
It’s hard to be a heavy hitter with a lot of punchouts, although it can be done. By 2025, Mike Trout again James Wood they were poor hitters despite hitting at least 32% of the time. Ryan McMahon again Oneil Cruz were also in that range and produced below average results.
Many analysts assumed that some group would bite the bullet and invest in Murakami regardless. It’s rare to get an opportunity to sign this caliber of player who hit his 26-year-old season. There is a danger that he could become like him Joey Gallo but the best game is that he is like him Kyle Schwarber. MLBTR predicted he would receive an eight-year deal worth $180MM. Other shops were not far away. FanGraphs predicted $154MM over seven years. Athletic was at $158.5MM over eight years.
Murakami didn’t get anything close to that. Whether it was because of the hitting or his lack of defensive value, teams didn’t want to make a long-term commitment. He signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the White Sox.
We don’t know what other offers Murakami received. Maybe some teams are floating three or four year arrangements. But in his opinion, if he didn’t get a real long-term offer, shortening makes sense. As mentioned, he is still very young. The deal gives him the opportunity to spend two years proving himself against big league pitching. He will be 26 and 27 in those seasons and will get another chance to seek a long-term contract before his age-28 campaign.
It was thought that maybe there would be time for Murakami to adjust, but so far he is doing well. Strikeouts are quite high, as he is at 32.1% through 109 plate appearances. But he also has ten home runs and a whopping 19.3% walk rate. He has a .253/.394/.598 line and a 170 wRC+.
The production isn’t exactly Schwarber-esque but it’s pretty close. Schwarber has a career 28.5% strikeout rate and has yet to finish a full season above 31%. He drew walks at a 14.2% clip and has been at that rate for most of his career. He was good for 30 homers a year but it’s been more like 50ish in recent years. It’s still early days, but Murakami is hitting multiple times while showing more power and great on-base skills.
Time will tell how it plays out in the larger sample. It’s possible that pitchers will find a way to attack him and limit his performance. Despite being concerned with velocity, he does a lot of damage against fastballs. Statcast gives him a .286 batting average and .786 slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to .200 and .400 against breaking pitches and .267 and .467 against offspeed stuff. He may also continue to adapt to MLB pitching and shave some punchouts.
If he continues to be a successful hitter for another few months, it will put the White Sox in an interesting spot. It doesn’t sound like Murakami will be part of their long-term plans. They are currently rebuilding and are not expected to compete this year. The Sox are getting better in recent years but are 10-15 and should be out of the playoff race this summer. The year 2027 may work better, but competition the following year is not a guarantee.
The White Sox could try to sign Murakami to an extension, giving him the nine-figure contract he didn’t get in free agency, but it would be out of character to do so. The Sox are one of only two teams, along with the Athletics, that have never issued a nine-player contract. The largest contract in White Sox franchise history is the five-year, $75MM deal they gave us Andrew Benintendi. If he continues to perform anywhere near this rate, he could reasonably ask for double that (if not more) in a new long-term deal.
If the Sox are going to make a move, it should be for someone safer, a special shortstop or a center fielder perhaps. A debutant who tends to be let go is a risky bet, even if it’s someone as exciting as Murakami. If the deal turns out to be an albatross, it will handcuff the team as they look to put this latest build in the rearview mirror.
This situation can lead to an obvious solution in many cases. If you are a rebuilding team and you have an attractive player with a short window of club control, you trade him for points or other young players who can contribute in the next competitive window. Trading Murakami this summer will bring a bigger trade profit than next year. The winning team would get Murakami in two playoff races instead of one, adding to the appeal and the price they’d be willing to pay.
But Murakami’s situation is more complicated than that. For the club signing the star player from Japan, part of the appeal is on the business side. In addition to anything Murakami provides on the field, he is likely to add to the team’s ratings and merchandise sales in Japan. Given his strong start, he may be adding to those sources of income across the Pacific Ocean.
That can make the calculation even more difficult. Trading Murakami this summer would be the best time to increase his value in terms of trade returns, but it would also lead to a reduction in those revenue streams and frustrate the fans. It’s also likely to complicate negotiations with Japan’s future free agents, who may not like the idea of a potential sign-and-trade situation.
If the Sox decide to hold on to Murakami, it could keep that revenue flowing for a long time. They can then see if the competition in 2027 looks strong. If not, they can still trade him that summer for a significant return, even if it’s less than trading him now. If they were to contend and hold him until 2027, they could offer him a qualifying offer, which would give them a choice if he ends up signing elsewhere. That pick would be nice, but the Sox should be able to get something attractive in a trade. There is also the risk that Murakami will increase his price next summer, due to injuries or a drop in production.
It’s an interesting position for the Sox, who are in a transition phase. In addition to rebuilding, they are on an unusual path to a change of ownership. Jerry Reinsdorf agreed to a succession plan with minority owner Justin Ishbia. At the moment, Ishbia is investing in the club and has an open approach to multi-ownership. From 2029 to 2033, Reinsdorf can decide to complete the sale of a large part of Ishbia. If not in that window, Ishbia gets the right to buy a majority stake from 2034.
As mentioned, the possibility of a Murakami extension seems unlikely, based on the club’s past spending patterns. While the club is flexible, does that make them less likely to sign a big contract? It’s also possible that the next collective bargaining agreement will include some sort of salary floor starting in 2027, so the Sox may need to spend more regardless. Maybe they’ll want some clarity on that before committing to Murakami or anyone else.
Put it all together and Murakami could be one of the most interesting players to watch in the coming months. The Sox can make a variety of decisions about how to proceed. They may try to lock him up on a long-term deal but may have to break their franchise record to do so. Trading this summer can be very profitable but it can hurt them on the business side. Holding out for a trade this winter or next year’s deadline, or until 2027, would be a better short-term business decision but probably a worse long-term baseball decision.
Photos courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images
