Legal action could increase US retirement wealth by up to 77%, study finds

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday to create a new way to save for retirement for workers who don’t currently have access to a 401(k) or other workplace plan.
About 56 million Americans do not have access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan at work, according to a 2025 study from the Pew Charitable Trusts, an independent public policy nonprofit.
The order calls for the launch of a new website next year, TrumpIRA.gov, where employees can research, compare and enroll in private sector retirement accounts where, if applicable, they can collect a matching contribution from the federal government.
“You will have access to the same type of retirement accounts that federal employees enjoy through Thrift Savings Plans, which is wonderful, as part of the federal Saver’s Match program,” Trump said at a White House press conference. “Low-income Americans will be eligible to receive up to $1,000 a year in matching funds deposited directly into their accounts.”
The accounts will be combined with the Saver’s Match, a provision from the 2022 law known as Secure 2.0, which provides matching contributions of up to $1,000 to low-income Americans saving for retirement.
Now, the Trump administration hopes to work with Congress to pass legislation that will expand access to the program and make the game bigger.
Two laws proposed in 2025 could help provide Congress with the framework to do just that — and elements of each could be of great benefit to American retirement savers, according to investment research firm Morningstar published Thursday.
After making some proposed provisions, such as increasing access to matching funds, automatic enrollment and increasing the amount of the match, through their model of retirement outcomes, the researchers found that America’s accumulated retirement wealth could increase by nearly 77%, adding $1.35 trillion to projected retirement wealth over 10 years.
How can the law increase the administrative order
Trump’s order targets Americans who currently do not have access to a workplace retirement account or similar funds from an employer.
About 40.6 million full-time American workers do not participate in the retirement system, and about 48.8 million do not benefit from the employer match, according to White House statistics.
Combining new accounts with Saver’s Match will access some of them.
Beginning in the 2027 tax year, single taxpayers with adjusted gross income up to $20,500 or combined filers making up to $41,000 are eligible for a government match worth 50% of up to $2,000 in a qualified retirement account, with a maximum match of $1,000 per year. Single filers with annual incomes between $20,500 and $35,500 qualify for the same reduced contributions. Combined filers making up to $71,000 can get a reduced match.
At Trump’s press conference, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett called for legislation that would extend benefits to more Americans. “We are working with Congress to greatly expand this program and look forward to having it enacted this year,” he said.
Hassett has also co-authored the American Retirement Savings Act, part of bicameral legislation that was returned to Congress this week. The bill was first introduced in 2022. Congress may also take up the Automatic IRA Act, which was reintroduced in December, but first introduced by Rep. Richard E. Neal (D-Mass.) nearly two decades ago.
It remains to be seen whether Congress will come together with a single law or pull elements from multiple sources and pass changes through a reconciliation process, as Treasury Secretary Scott Besent suggested was possible when Trump first floated the idea during his State of the Union address in February.
Here are some key provisions for each.
The American Retirement Savings Act
- Full-time or part-time employees who do not have access to an employer-sponsored plan will be eligible to have an account and automatically enroll in 3% of their salary.
- Low-income or low-income workers may qualify for an automatic 1% contribution and a matching contribution of up to 4% from the federal government, for the median income waiver.
The Automatic IRA Act
- It requires employers with more than 10 employees who do not sponsor a retirement plan to automatically enroll employees in IRAs.
- Employees will have an error rate of 6%, which will increase by 1 point per year, up to 10%.
How the proposed legislation could improve retirement outcomes
Researchers at Morningstar considered aspects of both programs when weighing the potential effectiveness of an enhanced version of Trump’s order, said Spencer Look, associate director of retirement studies at Morningstar and one of the study’s co-authors.
They arrived at the “baseline” of their simulation, which included automatic enrollment in retirement plans at a 3% savings rate. Under that scenario, Morningstar estimates that 32.3 million new savers would enter the system and retirement wealth would increase by 28%.
The biggest difference in all Morningstar simulations, Look says, is automatic registration.
“If it’s a voluntary enrollment type of structure, we wouldn’t expect to take much,” he said, adding that getting people out of retirement plans instead of in would be a big way to “move the needle.”
Researchers have linked other levers, too. They increased the Saver’s Match from 50% to 100% and lowered the single filer’s income from $35,500 to $60,000. They tested the system with a default contribution of 3% which increased from 3% to 6%. They take advantage of situations where laws prevent savers from accessing their mutual funds until they are 62 years old.
Each of these provisions will help increase American savings, and all in concert will create a 77% increase in US retirement wealth, with a particularly large impact on low-income people, according to Morningstar.
Regardless of which rules are eventually relaxed, the key for retirement savers is to keep adding to your portfolio over time, Look said. Workers with 10 or more years of continuous participation in retirement plans can see 67% to 125% higher retirement wealth under automatic enrollment scenarios, Morningstar found.
“The finding that underpins all of this is that being frugal — saving regularly over time — is a big factor in growing your nest egg,” Look said.
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