Bitcoin peaked in April, but its performance may be in shaky territory, according to crypto data provider CryptoQuant.
The leading crypto-currency gained 12.7% for the month, registering monthly gains going back to back and its best month since April 2025. It gained nearly 2% in March, following five consecutive months of decline. The Ether gained 8% over the same period, and its second month in a row and best month since August.
Infinite futures – the main source of crypto trading activity – was “the sole driver” of the rally, however, according to CryptoQuant. The firm’s apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in direct bitcoin purchases, remained negative in mid-April while demand for futures rose.
These two trends combined are usually a warning sign, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. They suggest that price action is driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
“This divergence – rising futures demand and contract spot demand – suggests price appreciation is driven by energy rather than new coin accumulation,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, in a Thursday report. “Historically, such a setup lacks the structural basis needed to sustain price gains and is often resolved by a correction when futures reverse.”
Bitcoin rallied in April, after a small March gain that followed five months in a row.
The data also underscores the dynamic nature of crypto exchanges and the importance of crypto derivatives – including the perpetual futures and, increasingly, the prediction markets.
Endless futures, better known as “perps,” continue to be a leading area of activity for trading, capitalization and price discovery. At the same time, spot trading, which was created by early crypto exchanges, becomes a less reliable engine for earning hard currency because it depends on continuous, non-regular accumulation cycles.
By 2026, the demand for crypto was uneven and very active. Price action is closely tied to the broader market – driven by changing US interest rate expectations and periodic shocks to the country stemming from the Iran war, rather than the usual local accumulation and underlying consumer demand. The industry is also lacking in incentives as regulatory progress – particularly on the market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act – has stalled.
Moreno noted that the same pattern – an increase in futures demand with a demand for contract space – appeared at the beginning of the 2022 bear market and was followed by a long-term price decline. With that in mind, the current upside could be low risk if the broader market remains in a bearish phase, Moreno said in the report.
Of course, the market during that time was closely related to the cycle of aggressive rate hikes and the distribution event of the crypto industry. It also preceded the institutional acceptance of bitcoin and the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate accumulators outside of bitcoin. Strategywhich was then called MicroStrategy.
“This is not a case of lack of demand reaching the future,” Moreno said. “Rules built on this structure tend to be self-limiting. Despite the increase in apparent demand to maintain prices higher, the relaxation of the futures position is often the driver of the next correction.”
Total inflows into ETF bitcoins reached $1.9 billion in April, bringing total assets to $100.53 billion. Bitcoin treasury companies increased their holdings by about 58,000 coins worth about $4.4 billion at month-end prices.
After hitting an April high of about $79,500, bitcoin entered its lowest low for the entire month. On Friday it was up more than 2% on the first day of trading in May, just over 1% off its April high.
—CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed reporting.
