As Armenia heads to elections, Russia warns of appointing ‘pro-European forces’
Thousands of people gathered in Armenia’s capital this week to denounce the allegedly treasonous course of action by their current government, waving flags and warning that a re-run would mean “staying here with the Azerbaijanis” – the country’s long-time rival, with whom the current administration has reached a tenuous peace.
But a bigger shadow looms over the upcoming vote: a historic break in the country’s relationship with Russia.
Therefore, when Armenians go to the polls on Sunday, it will be one of the most important elections that will take place in Europe this year.
The vote pits incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been in office since 2018, against a slate of two main opposition candidates. Both – former president Robert Kocharyan and Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, whose powerful Armenian party is holding a rally in Yerevan this week – are closely aligned with Russia.
Kocharyan, who ruled from 1998 to 2008, he sits on the board of directors of Russia’s largest financial institution, while Karapetyan made his own $4-billion US fortune in Russia, where he lived from the 1990s until recently.
While Pashinyan is expected to be re-elected, the election has taken on greater national significance.
The breakdown of Russian-Armenian relations
Pashinyan has pushed Armenia further west in recent years, signing deals and the US, which does officer ambitions to join the European Union and to host a meeting of the European Political Community last month. (The group was founded after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.)
Russia – the country’s traditional sponsor – seems to have had enough.
May 29, Vladimir Putin threatened the country by being established in the Eurasian Economic Union, which will lead to a a large increase in the price of gas. Moscow did the same block import of various Armenian goods, while it is reported that it opens networks of disinformation intended to expose Pashinyan.
On Thursday, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia said that “if the pro-European forces succeed [the election],” Russia will be forced to “take the necessary steps.” He did not specify what those might be.
The Kremlin is also said to be planning to do so send about 100,000 Armenians who live in Russia to vote against the prime minister. Armenian authorities responded by handing out leaflets at the country’s airports and border crossings, informing arrivals that accepting money to vote is punishable by prison.
The break in Russian-Armenian relations was not sudden, experts say, but rather the result of a growing estrangement over the years.
“Armenian-Russian relations have been troubled for a long time, which reflects the fact that this is a relationship with shifting foundations,” said Laurence Broers, a fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, in written comments for CBC News.
“The main pillar of the old relationship, the ‘redemption dream’ that Armenia’s loyalty receives Russian security guarantees, has fallen, and Moscow has lost its main source of leverage over Armenia in the unresolved Karabakh conflict,” he wrote.
The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region
For more than three decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at loggerheads over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which lies within Azerbaijan’s borders but is controlled by ethnic Armenians.
The 1991-1994 war saw Armenian forces victorious – a situation that endured until Azerbaijan launched a second war in 2020, capturing three-quarters of the territory before conquering the rest in 2023.
Throughout that time, Russia has been Armenia’s main security partner. However, Armenia’s faith in Moscow’s willingness or ability to help it fight external threats was severely shaken 2022 Invasion of Azerbaijan in Armenia itself, which saw the Azerbaijani army take place in southern Armenia during two days of fighting.
Armenia has requested the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russian-led analogue to NATO, asking Article 4, obliges Russia and other members to provide military assistance to restore the country’s territorial integrity.
in Moscow he refusedonly offers to send “observational work.” And less than a year later, the Russian peacekeepers he stood aside as Azerbaijan conquered the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh, it sent more than 100,000 refugees to Armenia.
Since then, Yerevan – under the leadership of Pashinyan – has deviated significantly from Moscow, orders withdrawal of Russian border guards from parts of the country and effective freezing its participation in the CSTO.
Ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh – 90,000 of them and counting – keep coming. They mourn for the lives they left behind, damaged by the conflict they are fleeing in the disputed region that the world recognizes as part of Azerbaijan.
What will the ‘new normal’ look like for Russia and Armenia?
Russia has responded by supporting Karapetyan in his campaign to free Pashinyan, so far with limited success. Recent polls it shows Pashinyan’s party leading with 32 percent of likely voters, compared to just six percent for Karapetyan, even though he has 23 percent. they are still undecided and 21 percent refuse to say.
Opposition forces have struggled to attract new supporters since the last election in 2021, in which Pashinyan beat his leading rival by 33 percent.
“The opposition party is failing to mobilize large groups of voters outside of its established base five years ago,” said Narek Sukiasyan, a political scientist at Yerevan State University.
“There is some conflict between Kocharyan’s and Karapetyan’s supporters, but there is very little chance that the ruling party will be ousted.”
Russian influence in the South Caucasus is very strong it was revealed in recent years. While Moscow once ruled the region through political, economic and military power, now only Georgia remains in its path. That is emphasized by the recent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in both Armenia and Azerbaijan – an event that felt unthinkable just a few years ago.
While Russia and Armenia will maintain some economic and political ties regardless of Sunday’s vote, the Kremlin is likely to be one of the many players – list now includes the US, the EU, Iran and Turkey – in the region and beyond. A state of affairs not seen since before the Russian Empire conquered the region in the early 1800s.
“The permanent damage is in the long term of Armenian-Russian relations: empty Russian hegemony, its declining power and the growing influence and power of many other actors in the South Caucasus,” wrote Broers.
“I suspect that Moscow and Yerevan may want to find a ‘new normal’ after this election, but this will not be the last issue between them.”
