As US President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a highly anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expectations for the visit of the leaders of the world’s two largest economies have been disrupted.
Trump’s arrival on Wednesday for a two-day visit will mark the first time a US president has set foot in mainland China in nearly a decade, the last time in 2017 during his first term.
But the reception at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing this week will be very different, even if it meets with half the pomp and ceremony it has been greeted with.
Any potential deals that could result from this latest meeting — and hopes for a broader deal — are undercut by distractions over the Middle East war, decades of mistrust and competition and the belief by some observers that Xi has the upper hand.
‘The most beautiful country of Iran’
From the Oval Office on Monday, Trump said he expected the talks to be “a little bit” about energy, and “the very good country of Iran.”
Admittedly, the timing is wrong, with the Chinese holding the US president as they attack and deter Iran, one of their strategic allies.
The visit, which was due to begin on March 31, has been postponed for six weeks because of the US-Israeli war with Iran, the outcome of which Trump is struggling to control. He is expected to ask Xi to play a more active role in lobbying Iran to end the conflict.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to “join us in its international mission” to open the Strait of Hormuz.
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Although Beijing may have to do so thoughtfully it is a major buyer of Iranian oil (despite having a stockpile, which makes the current disruption manageable), China has also shown that it does not want to get involved, and would rather do some convincing behind closed doors.
“There is no unified, non-interventionist approach from the Chinese government,” said Dan Wang, China director of Singapore-based consultancy Eurasia Group.
This was seen as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing last week.
While Wang asked Iran to reopen the road, he said that this is coming from “the international community” instead of the US and said that China supports it “peace and security framework for the countries of the region.”
What the US wants: Trade deals, rare minerals
Despite the war in the Middle East approaching this week’s trip, the bilateral relationship between the US and China should be very focused and Trump cannot just return to the country empty handed, even if the relationship is difficult and full of mistrust.
“[Trump] wants to maintain the impression of momentum,” said Craig Singleton, executive director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank. “He wants to maintain the impression of a viable trade agreement.”
I trade war between the two countries it goes back nearly a decade since Trump the first termwith the Biden presidency where the administration is adding new prices in areas such as electric vehicles (with Canada following suit)and increased last year, when US tariffs reached 145 percent on some imports from China. A an agreement was struck in October 2025 when Trump and Xi meet in South Korea.
Instead of a comprehensive agreement, China can address the trade deficit through smaller agreements in specific sectors, such as agriculture.
For example, China has traditionally bought more than half of all US soybeans, but stopped suddenly for six months in 2025 as the trade war escalated. To satisfy farmers, a Trump victory could involve China buying more.
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Another notable thing – more than a dozen technology and business leaders went with the US president including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Trump’s sometimes friend and sometimes enemies Elon Musk and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, which shows that the Chinese can buy more airplanes, as well as energy products such as oil and natural gas.
“Trump has to make it look like he has some victory coming back from the meeting with Xi,” said Greg Chin, an associate professor of political science at York University. “China knows how to do this kind of statecraft.”
Since Trump seems to be focused on building the American capacity in rare minerals by expanding domestic mining and agreements with other countries such as Japan and Australia, it is good to look at how China can use its power in dealing with these negotiations, given that it has not been busy using it. export control over exotic mineralsused in everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
It has a network of locked assets, a near-monopoly in processing, and has shown that it is not afraid to use it. retaliating against US spending.
What China Wants: Technology and Taiwan
What would be considered a victory for China is highly unlikely, although Wang with the Eurasia Group says Beijing will seek it further expansion of restrictions on the sale of AI chips and semiconductors as the two countries are very competitive with AI dominance.
Trump also talked about debating the Taiwan issue, saying he expects Xi to “raise Taiwan … more than I will.”
As the trade war between the US and China escalates ahead of the Nov. 1, there are growing concerns that Beijing will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip.
China has long wanted a weaken the US stance on Taiwanese independencewhen Xi asked then-president Joe Biden in 2024 to change the official position from “does not support” to “oppose.”
China will be looking to push Trump to do the same, which will raise questions about whether Washington will come to Taiwan’s defense, especially considering the $11 billion arms package announced for the island late last year.
Despite all the talk about Taiwan leading up to the summit, York University’s Chin considers the topic “overhyped,” saying he doesn’t believe China will take the island by military force.
“[China] you see Taiwanese people as Chinese,” Chin said. “You don’t want to bomb people and force them together. It doesn’t make sense.”
‘A huge success’
At the very least, the measure of a successful conference may be simpler than many think.
For Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China Program at Washington-tank the Stimson Center, the meeting itself is already “a great success.”
“Now it shows that both sides are willing to improve their relationship, to stabilize the relationship,” he said.
Stability in bilateral relations should not be underestimated, as both countries need space to deal with domestic issues, and considering any kind of conflict between the US and China has global consequences.
