Defense spending, China, Ukraine: Takeaways from Shangri-La Dialogue 2026

Defense spending, China’s position in the Asia-Pacific region and lessons from Ukraine were among the topics that dominated the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue this year.

The summit sees top world leaders, defense officials and key executives gather in Singapore from May 29 to 31.

Here are some of our key takeaways:

Countries seem to generally accept the idea that they will need to spend more on defense. Countries such as Japan, the Philippines and the Netherlands are planning to increase their quotas there.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in his remarks on Saturday that countries should spend at least 3.5% of their GDP on defense. Even New Zealand, which falls below 3.5%, is increasing its consumption in that area.

US President Donald Trump has been pushing this idea for years and it was initially met with surprise from many countries. Now many of them accept it, at least publicly.

Dutch Deputy Prime Minister Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius even said that the US was “right” to ask countries to spend more – noting that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed the way of reckoning in Dutch society.

“No country can do it alone,” Jen said. Jennie Carignan, Canadian defense chief. “Having the ability to come together to complement each other’s skills is very important,” he said, “but in order to do that, you have to have your own defense.”

Even before the conference began, much has been made about the fact that China will not send its defense minister to the forum for the second year in a row.

The Beijing delegation was led by Major General Meng Xiangqing from the People’s Liberation Army National Defense University.

Dong Jun’s absence was noticeably felt, with Hegseth saying: “I wish my partner could attend this conference, but I’m looking forward to other options where we can cross paths and talk.”

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said he was “sad” that Dong was not at the summit and called for more talks with Beijing.

Others, such as German defense chief General Carsten Breuer, say China is missing out on an opportunity for negotiations by not having a ministerial-level delegation.

The Philippines decided to publicly deny it, with national defense minister Gilberto Teodoro telling CNBC that “as a proposal for their number. [China’s] being here is reduced to a minimum … which is to improve the team line instead of being involved in a constructive way, in my opinion, it is not a big loss for me.”

But the low-level delegation did not stop the Chinese delegation from defending their position vigorously.

During his session at Dialogue, Meng took aim at Japan’s rising defense spending and increased arms sales, questioning whether Asian countries would trust Tokyo to retaliate after its actions in World War II.

Even former officials in the delegation were firm, such as former vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai, who maintained Beijing’s position that cross-border tensions were a matter of China’s territorial integrity and national unity.

“No one cares more about stability in the Taiwan Strait than we do in China, because both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese territory.”

However, it was not one way. Japan’s Koizumi accused the Chinese of a “lack of transparency” in their military build-up, while the US’ Hegseth warned Beijing that “there is a rightful alarm” in the Asia-Pacific region about China’s military build-up.

Manila’s Teodoro struck the loudest tone, saying China’s expansion continues unabated. “They are unrepentant in their expansion and relentlessness, and to deny that would be total dishonesty,” he said.

Ukraine is still very active in the international community, and its military tactics are being watched by all countries as Ukraine fights an invasion from a larger, better-equipped Russia. That concept of “asymmetric warfare” has reshaped defense strategy around the world.

“There is a lot of interest in the lessons from Ukraine and the surrounding areas of Ukraine, it is a kind of understanding that preventing asymmetric initial and asymmetric combat is an important thing,” Pavlo Klimkin, former foreign minister of Ukraine, told CNBC in an interview.

“What is at stake in this war is the whole sense of security — whether or not we have a security architecture in Europe and Europe as a whole, where Ukraine belongs, and how it can be fixed within the future security architecture,” Klimkin said.

Countries like the Philippines are not looking forward to Ukraine’s tactics as they increase defense spending – and Dutch defense chief General Onno Eichelsheim said they actually have Ukrainian advisers working with them to assess what is useful – not – to allocate resources to.