A worker smiles while looking at his mobile phone in front of a digital board showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) at the Korea Exchange (KRX) in Seoul, South Korea, on April 21, 2026.
Chris Jung | Nurphoto Getty Images
Markets in North Asia are faring better than those in the south of the continent, thanks to strong resilience from energy strikes, strong financial strength and AI developments, according to Goldman Sachs chief strategist.
North Asian markets have “larger buffer stocks” and can afford higher oil and gas prices, compared to South Asia, which “has very few buffers and lacks the liquidity to offset the pass-through of higher prices to the economy,” said Tim Moe, Chief Asia Pacific equity strategist and head of major research in Asia. Goldman Sachs Research.
Moe described some North Asian markets as seeing “greater efficiency” compared to South Asia, according to a transcript of Goldman Sachs’ “Exchanges” podcast seen by CNBC.
Meanwhile, “[Markets in] Indonesia, South Asia – no technology and a lot of energy vulnerability – down 25%,” said Moe.
Investors are focused on AI development in northern Asia, particularly in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, where technology-focused stocks make up about 80%, 60% and 30% of their indexes, respectively, Moe noted. The best-performing markets are South Korea and Taiwan, with South Korea up more than 80% year to date, he added.
South Korea’s Kospi index.
But Moe warned that Korean semiconductor stocks are similar Samsung Electronics again SK Hynix they trade about five to six times this year’s earnings and about four times next year’s. “That basically means that the market really doesn’t believe that those gains can last long,” he said.
Moe was also optimistic about the Japanese market, citing the country’s measure of political stability following the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, “respectable” wage growth and AI robots.
Chinese performance
In China, Moe sees A shares – which trade in yuan in mainland China and are up 10% year to date – as “objectively” the best-performing H shares, mainland shares traded in Hong Kong. He said he sees “very clear policy support” for the development of China’s equity market structure.
“This is an indication that China has come out of three years of inflation measured by the PPI, the producer price index, and that has been positive for two consecutive months, the latest reading was 2.8%, above consensus,” Moe added.
Chinese H shares underperformed due to weak returns from distressed stocks. “H shares are very much dominated by the internet application area [is on] it’s the soft end of the commercial AI spectrum,” Moe said. “And that’s something that’s been losing steam because the focus has been on the hardware going up,” he added.
Asked what he would say about last week’s meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, Moe said “no damage was done.”
“Against the backdrop of regional tensions, around the world, and concerns about the US-China conflict, it’s just a calmness in the relationship that I think is appreciated and desired by both sides,” he added.
Moe also warned of a “rude awakening” when the energy supply shock “really” hits.
“I think we may be in for some form of discipline in the summer months. So, that’s something we’re looking at very closely,” Moe said.
