Maine may start Susan Collins. It could hurt the state coffers for years

Maine may send Sen. Susan Collins packing up after the midterm elections. That decision could come back to bite the Pine Tree region’s balance sheet for years to come.

Collins, a federally elected Republican from New England, is in the fight of his political life against progressive Democratic candidate Graham Platner. Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, harnessed anger against President Donald Trump and anti-establishment animus to get the Democratic nomination — forcing Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to abandon her Senate campaign within months. His yard signs dot streets and neighborhoods, and he’s leading in nearly every poll against Collins.

The race, like most midterm contests, is becoming a presidential poll, which is underwater nationally in nearly every poll. And Collins, who has repeatedly beaten the odds in surprising GOP fashion as New England has turned blue, is clearly facing a wave as voters consider whether to allow Trump a Senate majority for his final two years in the White House.

Senate control is important. Democrats winning the Senate could block Trump from appointing a fourth and possibly a fifth justice to the Supreme Court. It will also open the doors for a bicameral investigation of the president if the Democrats are present in the House. The Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate remain slim. A May 13 report from BCA Research indicated that Republicans maintain a slim majority in the chamber.

But Maine voters were presented with a special dilemma when they went to the polls to decide Collins’ fate: Do they really want to clip the wings of their golden goose to loosen Trump’s grip on Washington?

Collins, 73, who is running for a sixth term, is at the height of his power in the Senate – a body where rank trumps all else. The moderate Maner is chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, a highly coveted position that makes him the gatekeeper of the state’s treasury and gives him the power to send billions of dollars home while taking a major role in the administration.

“It’s a classic political question over the years,” said Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, who represents the state’s southern 1st Congressional District. He said it will be “difficult to predict” whether voters will choose the certainty of greatness or the “politics of the moment.”

In a phone interview with CNBC, Collins made the case for his re-election by saying he’s ready to bring more to Maine, where others can’t. And he pulled no punches when he pointed out what the state would lose if it fell.

“Maine is going to lose a lot,” Collins said. “Even if by some miracle Graham Platner could be appointed as a freshman to the Appropriations Committee, it will take him years to accumulate the seniority, experience, knowledge and power necessary to chair a subcommittee.”

“Look how long it took me to become the chairman of the full committee,” he said.

It took Collins, who was first elected in 1997, until 2025 to make the Appropriations decision. The last Maine senator to use it before him was Frederick Hale, who resigned in 1932. Hale, a Republican, served 24 years in the chamber.

Collins is not related to Hale, who reportedly once beat a newspaper editor with a whip for publishing a negative story about his mother. She is a staunch Republican and the first GOP woman to chair the committee. But he’s brought in a job that’s known in Washington to pay dividends.

In the years through 2021, when congressional spending targets — or earmarks — are reinstated, Collins’ office says he has reaped nearly $1.5 billion in Maine. About $429 million of that is allocated for fiscal year 2026 alone. While other lawmakers quietly question earmarks, Collins is loud and proud of hers.

“It had been 92 years since the Senator from Maine had chaired the Appropriations Committee, so I realized I had a one in a percent chance to make a real difference in the state of Maine and our country,” said Collins. “I was able to secure nearly $1.5 billion in federally directed capital expenditures for more than 650 projects across the state in all 16 counties.”

Collins talked about renovating fire stations that are “sadly outdated and generally not healthy environments for firefighters.” He also received $9.6 million for environmental construction in the city of Cumberland, nearly $5 million to expand a rural health center in Calais and $6 million to improve wastewater treatment in Biddeford, to name a few.

Platner’s campaign doesn’t dispute that Collins brought home the bacon. But in his campaign statement, he said the money doesn’t make a big difference to everyday Mainers. Platner’s campaign, which did not make him available for an interview, also pointed to the campaign contributions Collins has made over the years.

“What Senator Collins has brought in funding for projects in Maine pales in comparison to what he has sent overseas in immoral wars, and what has lined the pockets of his billionaire donors,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement. “You’re taking money from Big Pharma while rural hospitals are closing. You’re taking money from Lockheed Martin and voting for another endless war. You’re voting to ban stock trading while profiting from stock trading.”

“No amount of spin is going to change the fact that after 30 years in Washington, Susan Collins has gotten richer while life has gotten worse for working Mainers — and Mainers feel it,” the spokesman said.

Collins has also made his share of controversial votes over the years. He recently voted for the SAVE Act, a bill that opponents say will make it harder for people to vote in US elections. He also voted to confirm the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who went on to support the overturning of the landmark abortion rights case Roe v. Wade.

Mark Brewer, chairman of the political science department at the University of Maine, said Collins’ money brings things.

“It’s big in Maine, there’s no way around that,” Brewer said in an interview. “This will be a bludgeon that Collins will use throughout this campaign. And there is no good answer to it.”

“You bring the country together, and no matter what you’re a part of, that’s important, and everybody knows it’s important,” he said.

Hanging on to Collins’ re-election, however, is Trump’s omnipresence. Voters recoiled from Trump’s second administration, electing Democrats in the 2025 re-election and repeatedly giving low approval numbers in public polls.

For Democrats running in every state, including Maine, the fight against Trump is like any campaign. And Collins is – generally – a reliable Republican vote.

Collins, at times, has drawn Trump’s ire by voting for his party. And he is known to ask about the party’s belief before voting the party line. He did not vote for the president’s signature tax and spending measure known as the One Big Beautiful Bill. He voted to censure Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol. Most recently, he voted with Democrats against Trump’s war with Iran, a reversal after weeks of voting for war.

“Republicans, when in doubt, vote for the exact opposite of Senator Susan Collins. In general, you can’t go wrong,” Trump said in July last year in his Truth Social site. “Thank you for your attention to this matter and, MAKE AMERICA AGAIN!”

In the interview, Collins said he approaches his contact-and-travel relationship with the Trump White House the same way he approached past administrations.

“I have worked with five presidents, I have never agreed with one of the five on every issue, and this president is no different,” said Collins. “I have a track record of success, regardless of who is in the White House, and I always try to develop relationships to work with members of the Cabinet.”

Collins also said most voters don’t see another important part of his job: Jawboning members of the Trump administration to reverse their decisions when defunding an important project or doing something else that hurts the country. One such example was “Operation Catch of the Day,” a temporary crackdown on immigration in Maine that was quickly abandoned amid the backlash.

“The improved performance stopped, and it looked like it stopped because Collins made the call,” Brewer said.

Because he is a vulnerable Republican in an election year, the White House has welcomed Collins at times when other blue or purple states would not, despite his strong relationship with the president.

Collins warned that if he is voted out, it will be gone not only in Maine, but in the entire state of New England.

“On the current team, I am the only member who has the ability to do that,” said Collins.

He also recounted one very unfortunate incident where the Trump administration cut off funding for the Maine Sea Grant, a research and business support program for the state’s famous fishing industry run by the University of Maine. The program is run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under the Department of Commerce and Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“I’m on my way home from the annual fishermen’s conference … I get a text saying that the administration has cut the Sea Grant Program for the state of Maine,” Collins said. “So I called the Secretary of Commerce, Secretary Lutnick, and explained to him how important this program is to our fishing industry, to our lobstermen and women, to the researchers at the University of Maine and to our coastal communities.”

“Long story short, we were put back to work,” he said.

Whether any of this is enough to help Collins resist the tide, however, remains to be seen. Senators have continued to run in their politically volatile districts in the past, but often their luck runs out — as evidenced by the ousting of former Democratic Sens. Jon Tester, of Montana, and Sherrod Brown, of Ohio, in 2024.

Brewer said there’s no doubt Maine is turning blue, but it’s still a purple enough situation for Collins to pull out a win.

“A classic New England-style, Rockefeller-type Republican can still win here, and Collins shows that cycle after cycle,” he said. “Now, that won’t go on forever. But I don’t know if the clock strikes midnight in 2026 or not.”