MLB Mailbag: Devers, Nationals, DFA Carousels, Guardians, Red Sox

I’m pressuring MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes for this week’s MLB Mailbag! In this genre, we will get into it Rafael Devers‘ contract value and trades (or lack thereof), the Nationals’ unexpected strong performance and how it could stall their deadline, the revolving door of “41-man” rosters on 40-man rosters (eg. Carlos Carrasco), the keeper’s deadline needs, the Red Sox’s search for a right-handed bat and more.

For questions…

Peter asks…

With Rafael Devers hitting again (and his defense at first base being excellent) how would you rate his value on the open market considering his remaining contract? What rate of return can you expect the Blacks to get him and which teams do you think would be most interested in him? Will the Giants have to pay any of his remaining contract?

Devers is hitting much better after a rough start to the season. After a disastrous .207/.248/.289 slump with a 31% slugging rate at the end of April (129 plate appearances), he rebounded with a .257/.321/.500 line in his most recent 165 plate trips. It’s an encouraging change, but there are red flags that should be mentioned.

First and foremost, that 31% dropout rate Devers is holding on to in his awful early fall hasn’t subsided. In this phase of 165 plate appearances, he’s struck out a 30.9% clip — effectively the same rate. The biggest difference has been the power hitting (six homers in this stretch) and the huge increase in Devers’ batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in that downing was nearly league-average .288. At this point, he’s at .344.

All that does not come from luck. Devers’ exit velocity jumped from an average of 89.8 mph during that cold snap to a whopping 93.4 mph in his hot streak. His strikeout rate increased from 41.5% to a career high of 55.6%. Devers communicates better, so it is clear that many of his balls are in play it should stay tuned for the hits.

Even so, Devers still doesn’t go far. His contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone, even during his recent surgery, is 75% — just shy of the league average of 85.9%. And while Devers has been good this season, he hasn’t been the best. By wRC+ rating, Devers has been nearly 27% better than average since the start of May. That’s pretty cool, but it doesn’t come close to his best outing. Back in 2021-22, for example, Devers crushed 65 homers in 297 games and did so with average stats that put him nearly 36% better than average: .287/.355/.530. His strikeout rate over the two years was 20.1%. His contact rate with foul balls was still below average but was five percent higher than this latest revival.

All that said, Devers has been playing like an above-average but flawed hitter since early May. That’s a nice improvement after he looked lost to start the season — and after dealing with a disc injury in his lower back last summer — but does it bring back any semblance of trade value? I don’t believe so.