This week’s post bag is going strong Gunnar Henderson trade time, Marlins lefty power Braxton Garretteither All-Star Game starting pitchers, or the Tigers could trade an injured ace Tarik Skubalthe Padres could add at the trade deadline, and more.
Drew asks:
Let’s play a game, part 1: predict the worst in Gunnar’s trade this year, the offseason, the 2027 pre-trade deadline, or not. Part 2: What is his true value in terms of prospecting capital given his declining performance?
Henderson, 25 in June, is under the club’s control until 2028. This is his first year of arbitration, and he earns $8.5MM. As a Boras client, Henderson is not seen as a potential extension candidate for the Orioles.
As of Wednesday morning, the 16-20 Orioles have given up hope of winning the AL East, but are only one game back from a wild card spot. According to FanGraphs, they have a 31.4% chance of making the playoffs this year.
After a 1-for-5 effort against the Marlins on Tuesday, Henderson’s wRC+ stands at just 95 through 163 plate appearances. He showed good power with nine home runs, but he’s hitting about 31% of the time and as a result has a .208/.270/.443 line. Henderson’s projected batting average is .225, so he’s earned his worst early season streak. In a full season, Henderson has yet to post a wRC+ below last year’s 120, and climb to 154 in 2024.
Has Henderson ever posted a .713 OPS over 35 games? Yes – he was awful from August 19th to September 27th last year, when he hit .248/.333/.308 (83 wRC+). He also had an early 2023 streak in that stretch with a .684 OPS (.192/.328/.356 for a 94 wRC+). What has happened so far is within the range of Henderson’s normal range. After that streak ended in ’23, he posted a 130+ wRC+ the rest of the way.
Henderson has spent plenty of time at third base and shortstop in his career, though he’s been short since his monster ’24 season. He showed almost average defensive skills in the area.
The Orioles could reasonably be out of the playoff race before the August 3 trade deadline. They could trade Henderson for three pennant races, moving on to his final 2 1/3 years of control.
Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias is the pragmatic type, but I expect him to reload (to some extent) in 2027 and try to win again with Henderson. Henderson projects to be worth 5 WAR this year and makes up a fraction of his market value. There’s just no good reason to cash him out this summer. I will put the chances of a trade in the summer of 2026 at 1%.
As we entertain this thought, it’s worth asking who will take over the Orioles in the short term. Jeremiah Jacksonwho gets the majority of the second base share at the moment, one candidate. He was seen as a shortstop at the position back in his days, before he was traded to the Mets and then released. Jackson Holiday he has five years left in team management and could be a long-term option, although he delayed his return this year with a broken hamate bone. Jordan Westburg he’s on 60-day IL with a partial UCL tear, so he’s a big question mark right now. Neither Holliday nor Westburg have played shortstop regularly since 2023.
MLB.com raises the prospect Hiwa Aloy he could stick at shortstop, but is currently in High-A. Former major leaguer Jose Barrero he has been managing shortstop for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and could be the 2026 stopgap.
Is Holliday the best long-term insider bet to take in the short term? He was seen as an up-and-coming defensive tackle, but as a second baseman last year he struggled to his right and didn’t show a strong arm. Holliday has five years of control left, but he also has one decent MLB season under his belt and has yet to extend into 2026.
I’m trying to talk myself out of the Orioles trading Henderson during the 2026-27 offseason, and I find it a huge stretch. They just don’t have a good replacement, so trading Henderson would be a huge deal for ’27. The Orioles have committed Pete Alonso again Shane Baz until 2030, resergent Adley Rutschman under control from ’27, Westburg to ’29, and Holiday to ’30. As much as I don’t like that core of MLB, resorting to a reset this winter by trading away their best player would be a gut-punch to fans. Throw in a lockout that could cost three-plus months of the season, significantly shortening the window to make a franchise-changing trade, and it feels very unlikely.
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