Putin headed to Beijing days after Trump tested China’s direction

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, visiting an alliance that had time to clear the traps set by US President Donald Trump a few days ago.

The summit, scheduled for May 19-20, marks the second time Chinese and Russian leaders have met in the past year, as Beijing seeks to manage relations with Washington and Moscow while positioning itself as a key force in global negotiations. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 left Moscow effectively isolated and increasingly dependent on Beijing for trade under Western sanctions.

“We expect a lot from this visit,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, describing the agenda as developing bilateral relations that are “privileged and strategic.”

The US has long pressured Beijing to reduce economic support for Moscow that Western officials say helps stabilize Russia’s military power. NATO has called China a “powerful donor” to the war in Ukraine, citing Chinese firms that supply dual-use materials used to replenish Russian weapons.

China holds a “strong influence” at the summit as its support has become more important to Putin amid growing economic pressure on Russia and military tensions in Ukraine, said Andrius Tursa, a Central and Eastern Europe consultant at Teneo.

Moscow cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.4% from 1.3% as its economy recovers from Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure and export facilities that support Russian war financing and uncertainty over the future of US sanctions relief.

Putin will want assurances that any improvement in China’s relationship with Washington will not change the “strategic triangle” that keeps China and Russia closer than the US, said Dennis Wilder, a former US intelligence official and professor at Georgetown University.

Trump’s visit last week was a lavish state banquet and brought many deliverables, including $17 billion in annual agricultural imports by 2028, an order for 200 Boeing jets, and a September meeting of China’s leader in Washington.

Putin’s visit, on the contrary, is expected to be more active as part of the normal interaction between the two countries, said Tursa. But the size and composition of the Russian delegation suggests that Putin hopes to expand bilateral cooperation in many areas, he added.

Chinese media welcomed the idea of ​​a return visit regardless. The Global Times described the sequence as evidence that Beijing is “rapidly emerging as an important hub for world dialogue,” noting that hosting the leaders of the United States and Russia during the week was “very rare in the post-Cold War era.”

Washington is likely to keep a close eye on developments.

“If there is significant aid from China to Russia, the US will probably complain about it,” said Kurt Tong, managing director of The Asia Group, on CNBC’s The China Connection on Monday.

Power is expected to dominate the program. China has become Moscow’s biggest oil and gas buyer, buying Russian supplies at deep discounts as demand from Europe is at its lowest since the mid-1970s.

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raising energy security concerns across Asia, Beijing has a new incentive to cut off Russian supplies, while Moscow needs revenue to stabilize its economy.

Putin signaled last week that Russia was close to a “serious” gas and oil deal with China. “We are at a very advanced stage of the agreement to make an important, very big step forward in the gas and oil sector,” Putin said during a press conference, adding that “if it is possible for us to conclude and finish the visit (to China), I will be very happy.”

Chinese investment in Russia’s public sector is expected to be on the table, analysts say. Bilateral trade has risen to record levels since 2022, with China accounting for more than a quarter of Russia’s exports.