Still from “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.”
“Star Wars” returns to the big screen for the first time in seven years this weekend, riding the boundaries of the Mandalorian plane.
Disney’s “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” grossed $12 million in Thursday night’s preview sales, the lowest advance ticket collection in the franchise’s history, according to data from Comscore. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the previous low, with $14.1 billion in ticket sales back in 2018.
Box office analysts expect the film, based on the new Disney+ show “The Mandalorian,” to gross about $80 million in its three-day opening weekend and $95 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. Some neutral experts estimated that the three-day haul would be $95 million and the holiday weekend would pull in $115 million.
That would be the smallest opening for a Star Wars film in modern cinema history. “Solo” grossed $84.4 million when it opened eight years ago. Since 2015, only “Solo” has opened under $100 million domestically, Comscore data shows.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” will likely benefit from the popularity of the telecast, the long Memorial Day weekend and limited competition from new titles, especially on large-format screens.
It will also serve as a test of pressure on the upcoming Star Wars theatrical release between the underperforming Star Wars cinema and Marvel, the tentpole franchises that helped Disney dominate the global box office in the 2010s. The studio has “Starfighter” hitting theaters in 2027 starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Shawn Levy.
New Star Wars titles haven’t been in theaters since 2019’s “The Rise of Skywalker.” The final film in the Skywalker Saga and the third film in what has become known as the sequel trilogy grossed over $1 billion, but was largely underwhelmed by critics and fans alike. Disney and its Lucasfilm studio have suspended theatrical productions in favor of relaunching the franchise for streaming service Disney+.
“The Mandalorian,” which premiered a month before “The Rise of Skywalker,” was a huge hit for the company and inspired many live-action Star Wars projects to launch the series instead of the theater. These include “Andor,” “Obi-Wan Kenobi,” “Ahsoka,” “Skeleton Crew,” “The Acolyte” and “The Book of Boba Fett.”
Lucasfilm has tapped director Jon Favreau — who worked with newly minted studio head Dave Filoni to bring “The Mandalorian” to Disney+ — to helm “The Mandalorian and Grogu.” The feature film had a smaller budget than standard Star Wars films, with production costs estimated at $165 million. Some Star Wars projects released theatrically in the last decade had a production budget of $250 million or more, according to data from Numeri.
This means that “The Mandalorian and Grogu” has a smaller profit margin than previous titles in the franchise. Of course, those production budgets don’t include marketing spending.
For parent company Disney, it’s not just about box office numbers. The film has strong consumer product launches to accompany its release.
The Star Wars franchise has always been a strong seller in stores even without a theatrical release. So having new products in different categories and brands can be a big boon for the company – especially after the character Grogu, known as “Baby Yoda,” became a fan favorite.
Notably, following the 2015 release of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” the first of Lucasfilm’s latest Star Wars trilogy, Hasbro alone saw sales of Star Wars products reach nearly $500 million.
Disney is already making commitments at its park locations, including exclusive merchandise and a revamp of its Smugglers Run ride featuring Grogu.
