Brazilian fans show their support during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 quarter final match between Croatia and Brazil at Education City Stadium on December 09, 2022 in Al Rayyan, Qatar.
Michael Steele | Getty Images Sports | Getty Images
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to be the biggest betting event in history – and the first to fully test the US sports betting market.
The tournament will begin Thursday in Mexico City and will end approximately six weeks later at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. Between those two groups, 48 teams will compete in 104 games.
Analysts predict betting opportunities could reshape customer adoption of sportsbooks, betting markets and the sports data companies that power them.
Global revenue for the 2026 World Cup could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion during the 2022 tournament, according to Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon.
An expanded format, 40 more matches than in 2022, as well as favorable North American time zones and wider legal access to sports betting in the US can create a logical environment for online gaming companies.
Ready for the World Cup
Macquarie expects the World Cup to generate a 2% to 5% boost to EBITDA by 2027, with the biggest benefits going to companies with high football viewership, international exposure and the ability to sell bettors high-quality products.
The firm pointed to FanDuel’s parent Flutter Entertainment as one of the leading operators. The company’s global footprint puts it in a position to gain power not in North America where sports are played, but in countries like Brazil where “soccer” is a religion.
“We think the Super Bowl is huge here in America. You might have 200 million people watching,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson said last week on “Closing Bell.” “Last time, when the World Cup final was played in Qatar, 1.5 billion people watched the final. Five billion people watched the whole tournament, so this is huge.”
Macquarie also listed the Super Group once Rush Street Interactive as well positioned to take advantage of increased betting activity, and sports data companies Games of Genius again sportradar, recently struck a deal with prediction platform Kalshi for professional football, baseball, hockey and UFC data.
Deutsche Bank estimates that the soccer tournament will generate a bet handle – that is, the amount bet on a certain event – in the US alone of about 3.3 billion dollars, although it has placed both a bull and a bear case near the figure.
The company estimates that FanDuel could take in about $1.3 billion from the management of the US World Cup, followed by The Kings Are Not Prepared about $1.1 billion. Deutsche Bank recognizes BetMGM, which is owned by MGM again Have funbringing in about $250 million, Caesars about $120 million and Penn’s theScore Bet about $83 million.
A growing market for sports betting
Of the Caesars The sportsbook is offering 10 times more betting options than it did for the 2022 World Cup and is rounding up options that have proven to be fan favorites during March Madness.
“When the US Men’s National Team makes a deep run, that’s where things can get faster, driving more conversations and betting on each game,” Caesars Digital senior vice president of sports Dominic Hammond told CNBC. “At the same time, the uncertainty of the tournament and the proliferation of parlay betting means that a few key disruptions can dramatically change results.
The US sports betting market has grown rapidly since the last men’s World Cup in 2022. About 65% of the US population now has legal access to sports betting, compared to about 40% during the 2022 tournament, according to the American Gaming Association.
FIFA World Cup signs at Penn Station in New York, US, Thursday, June 4, 2026.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This time, US bettors across the country can bet on the matches through the betting platforms. However, many states are involved in legal proceedings regarding futures markets, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asserts that it has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate futures contracts.
Licensed betting apps are still the most popular platform for World Cup betting, according to research from anti-fraud firm SEON, with 29% of respondents saying it is their choice. But 19% said they prefer prediction markets, ahead of social casinos, crypto-based platforms and offshore sites.
Prediction platforms are growing exponentially
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley wrote in a note on Tuesday that Kalshi and Polymarket together saw volumes grow 13% in the week to a record $7 billion in trading volume.
Kalshi, which owns the space, offers nearly 500 tournament-related markets. The highest trading volume is currently for the July 19 final, with Spain and France leading the odds.
Fanatics, FanDuel and DraftKings have also jumped into the speculation arena, but have limited sports markets to states where they don’t have sports licenses.
DraftKings stock rose 11% on Tuesday after it released trading volume results for May that showed a 34% jump from the previous month to $3.1 billion dollars for the year.
“Annual customer volume” – the number DraftKings compares to the sportsbook handle – reached $1.3 billion, a 24% month-over-month increase. By comparison, the company’s sports betting handle last year was about $54 billion.
Sportsbooks have ratings, regional licenses, promotions and existing customer bases. Prediction markets can attract users who want to trade results in a format that feels closer to financial markets than traditional betting. Sports data companies are trying to sell both picks and shovels.
SEON’s survey found nearly a quarter of respondents admitted to what the survey called “friendship fraud,” which involves signing up for multiple betting accounts to access promotions. Millennials showed the highest propensity to bet: 65% said that they are at least likely to bet on matches, while they also point excessively to the use of the market, the use of social-casino, the use of crypto-platforms and the registration of multiple accounts.
That worries advocates of fair gambling. Matt Zarb-Cousin is a self-proclaimed gambling addict and inventor of Gamban, a global technology that blocks access to online gambling sites and apps. He said gambling addiction is more likely when there are many games every day for more than a month.
“Betting apps are developed for engagement; they want to keep their users engaged as long as possible so that their gambling becomes a habit,” Zarb-Cousin told CNBC. “Fans will be bombarded with endless advertising and constant promotion of betting opportunities. For the gambling industry, the World Cup will be like March Madness on steroids.”
CNBC’s Ananya Chetia contributed to this report.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes minority investment and customer acquisition.
