Traders are predicting that Trump will make big announcements during the China trip
US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One in Washington, DC, US, Tuesday, May 12, 2026.
Bonnie Cash | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prediction market traders think that President Donald Trump will make big announcements during his trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Kalshi traders give 86% chance of announcement that China will buy aircraft from domestic manufacturer Boeing.
That belief was shared by Wall Street, as Boeing stock rose nearly 2% on Wednesday ahead of the meeting.
“Speculation is that Trump wants this to be the largest order ever announced, which would mean Boeing’s purchase commitment in the triple-digit billions,” wrote Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. politics and policy at Wolfe Research, in a letter. “Investors will need to wait for clarification from the company on how ‘realistic’ those numbers are and which specific airframes are included.”
Traders also put more than 81% chance that Trump will announce an extension of the US-China tariff agreement. In their October deal, China agreed to suspend export controls on the exotic world while the US reduced tariffs on the country’s fentanyl-related drug to 10% from 20%.
Barclays predicted that tariffs could drop by a few percent if China buys planes, as well as American oil and soybeans. While Kalshi traders see a 79% probability of soybean purchases announced, oil purchases have a much lower probability of 24%.
Traders also think there is a 69% chance that a US-China trade deal will be announced. This is the main goal of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Wolfe’s Marcus noted. “We suspect that this will be done primarily through continued purchase commitments, where the Board of Trade is seeking a one-size-fits-all response from the CCP on what China will buy from the US to reduce the bilateral trade surplus,” he wrote.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday as he left for the trip that while he expected to discuss the Iran war with Xi, he also said, “I don’t think we need help with Iran.” Despite that, traders see a 61% possibility of talking about Tehran during the bilateral meeting. They also give a 59% chance that he will talk about oil or gasoline.
However, marketers think there is a 54% chance that you will talk about artificial intelligence. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee in a note on Tuesday predicted that the topic will be of great interest, given the background of the administration expected to join Trump on his trip.
“Over the US AI chip/WFE talks [wafer-fabrication-equipment] export restrictions, the presence of the CEO of Micron and the president of Meta can give scope to the issues of China’s ban of Micron products in China’s important infra and restrictions against Facebook to be part of the negotiations,” he wrote.
And while China-US tensions are high these days, traders don’t think that will stop a firm handshake. Traders think the most likely scenario is that Trump and Xi will shake hands for about 8.5 seconds.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a small investment.
