Bass is leading in the new LA mayoral race, with Pratt and Raman neck and neck in the running.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass continues to hold the lead among likely voters in her re-election bid, but not by a large enough margin to avoid a possible runoff with Spencer Pratt or Nithya Raman, who are vying for second place, a new poll has found.
The latest polling comes just three weeks before the June 2 primary, when the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 3 unless the candidate receives more than 50% of the votes.
Bass jumped to 30% approval in a poll released Wednesday by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics, up 10 points from the same group’s last poll released in March. A new poll of about 350 voters was conducted on May 9-10 – after the televised debate between Bass, Pratt and Raman – and has a margin of error of 5%.
Pratt, a former TV star whose house burned down in last year’s Palisades fire, now has 22% support, up 12 points in the latest poll. Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council and a former colleague of Bass, was in third place with 20%, up 10 points from March and within 5% of the margin of error with Pratt.
“There’s definitely a lot of anticipation about who’s going to be in second place,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller is favored by about 7% and community organizer Rae Huang by about 4%.
Polls show a steep drop in undecided Angelenos as the primaries close. More than 50% of voters were undecided in March when Emerson’s final election was released. Now, that figure has dropped to 16%.
But those 16% of undecided voters could play a big role in the outcome.
When undecided voters were asked who they would vote for if they had to choose, Raman jumped ahead of Pratt — though by less than a percentage point, the poll found. Looking at how undecided voters are leaning, Bass will lead with 35%, Raman will follow with 23.3% and Pratt with 22.9%.
Mayoral candidates Spencer Pratt, left, and Nithya Raman trail the incumbent mayor in a poll released Wednesday by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics.
(Associated Press; Los Angeles Times)
Bass has the female lead at 36%, while Pratt has the male majority at 30%. Raman, on the other hand, was leading among young voters, capturing 31% of voters under the age of 40. Bass followed with 20%, and Pratt with 13%, the survey showed.
Bass was dominated by older voters, with 47% support from over-60s. Pratt had 25% of the over 60 votes and Raman trailed far behind with 6%.
Kimball said polls show Pratt’s base is strong, but Raman can still outpace him if he can turn out younger and undecided voters.
The Raman and Pratt campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Bass spokesman Alex Stack said the mayor’s camp is looking to “win the general election against Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt.”
Paul Mitchell, vice president of the bipartisan voter data company, Political Data Inc., questioned the poll’s accuracy, noting that 33% of those surveyed were Latino and 50% were over 50.
Indeed, the turnout among Latinos is likely to be 20%, he said, and 60% of voters will likely be over 50, Mitchell said. He said the turnout is “very young, very Latino and very few people.”
