A customer buys beer at a supermarket in New York on Jan. 22, 2026.
Charlie Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images
US beer sales fell more than expected, as new scanner data pointed to weakness in the category.
The decline raises concerns on Wall Street that higher gasoline prices could suppress discretionary spending, particularly in convenience stores.
Beer, flavored malt beverages, or FMB, and cider volumes fell 6.3% year over year during the week ending May 2, both after two and four weeks, according to data tracked by Nielsen. That’s worse than trends seen between November and mid-April, when the category’s decline was 3%.
Although some volatility in beer sales was expected because Easter was earlier this year than last year, according to the company’s analyst Bernstein, the scope of the price drop may indicate a wider pressure on the US consumer.
The weakness is most evident in the profitable channel – chains like 7-Eleven, Wawa, A shell again Exxon – where volumes fell by around 9% year-on-year in the two weeks from April 26.
Analysts said grocery stores are more sensitive to gas station relocations and impulse purchases associated with commuting and commuting — both of which appear to be under pressure as US gasoline prices remain around $4.51 a gallon, according to AAA.
“We find a negative correlation between the absolute price of gas in a given situation today and the subsequent change in beer/FMB/volume growth,” said Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat.
The relationship is becoming increasingly apparent in the data, especially in markets with high fuel prices.
High gas price regions
Average US gasoline prices have risen nearly 52% since the start of the Iran war, according to AAA data.
Since then, the data suggests, beer volume has been slipping in states with high gas prices, with California standing out as the weakest market. The state saw a 16% drop in volume between the four weeks following May 2 and the four weeks following April 4, with the most expensive gasoline market in the country at about $6.16 per liter. Arizona and Texas also saw a significant decrease, volumes decreased by 10% and about 7%, respectively, in the same period, with gas prices between $ 4.82 and $ 4 per liter respectively.
The weakness seems to spread beyond beer, according to Bernstein.
“The growing weakness in beer/FMB/cider appears to be reflected in other beverage sectors as well,” said Sarwat. “It probably points to intensifying cyclical pressures on the US consumer.”
The trends in beer consumption come after data showed US consumer sentiment fell to a new record low in May. One-third of respondents to a highly-anticipated University of Michigan survey identified gas prices as their top concern.
Even though beer consumption is on the decline, volume trends have been a mixed bag for some brewers.
Inside AB InBevMichelob Ultra remained strong with flat volumes, while Bud Light and Budweiser continued to post double-digit volume declines. Boston beer remains a weak player among the major brewers, while Molson Coors continues to lose market share.
Constellation Brands continues to gain share over its competitors despite the near-temporary softening of the overall category.
