Buy now or wait for the conflict?

As airfares continue to rise amid the war in Iran, travelers may be wondering: Should I buy my plane ticket now or wait to see if things improve?

Travel experts say the best bet is usually to buy sooner rather than later.

“Whether you’re looking to travel in two weeks, two months or looking ahead to travel, waiting to buy airfare … hoping that the conflict will end soon is more dangerous than some of the fashion decisions we made when we were young: Our future will not be happy about it,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going, a travel deal website.

In short: “If it’s in your budget now, don’t put it off,” says Nastro.

Airline ticket prices usually go up as the high-demand summer travel season approaches.

But prices have risen more than usual this year amid a shock to oil supplies caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran.

The average round-trip domestic flight cost $361 as of April 20, according to weekly data from Kayak, a travel search engine. That price is up about 8% from $335 on February 23, before the Iran war began. It is also up 19% from $304 last year, as of late April 2025.

International fares have risen sharply in recent months: The average round-trip flight hit $1,097 on April 20, a 42% increase from $774 on Feb. 23 and a 14% increase over last year, according to Kayak.

Airlines raise prices in the summer mainly because of the cost of jet fuel, according to Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper, a travel booking app.

Jet fuel is one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, typically accounting for 20% to 30% of their total costs — making jet fuel a “major driver” of airline revenue, Berg wrote in an email.

Iran and the US have blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a shipping lane through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes – in competing efforts to damage the economy of the other, driving up world oil prices.

The price of US jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil, has risen nearly 82 percent since the Iran war began, to $4.56 a gallon as of Wednesday from $2.50 in Feb. 27, according to the Argus Media jet price index.

Airlines must absorb those additional costs or pass them on at rates to recoup the “higher” per-flight cost, Berg wrote.

In addition to raising ticket prices, airlines have taken measures such as increasing baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges and reducing flight schedules to control what is happening.

The level of impact on consumers varies by route, Berg writes.

For example, the price impact can be more limited on short-haul flights since fuel represents a small share of total operating costs, he writes. But fuel becomes the “leading cost driver” on long-haul flights, so oil price movements have a direct and obvious impact on those travelers, he wrote.

Berg said he estimates that higher fuel costs have already increased summer aviation by about 10% compared to Hopper’s expectations. Travel to Europe, the top summer travel destination for Americans, rose nearly 9%, he wrote.

“We don’t know how fuel prices will go this summer, as the outcome of the current conflict is unknown,” Berg wrote. “Travelers looking to book a domestic or international flight this summer should start monitoring prices now. If they see a good deal, we recommend they go ahead and shop!”

Even if the war ends soon, it will take months for the situation to return to normal, experts say.

For example, it will take time to rebuild oil infrastructure in the Middle East and deal with delays in oil production, Nastro said.

“Don’t wait [to buy]because it’s a risk you don’t want to take right now, you think the fare will drop a lot, you’re taking the risk that it won’t drop at all.

The concept holds summer tours and flights in September and October, he said.

Without the war, the cost of the plane could change, experts say. And plane tickets tend to be more expensive in the weeks and months before departure.

Travelers can often find the best deals by shopping months in advance, and not waiting until the last minute, they say.

Nastro refers to this as the “Goldilocks” window.

Domestic fliers typically get the best prices when they shop about three to seven months before their trip, while international travelers typically do so four to 10 months in advance, Nastro said.

Berg gave a similar timeline, depending on your destination. He recommended:

• Domestic flights: Start monitoring prices three to four months before the trip and book one to two months in advance;
• Trip to Europe: Start price monitoring seven to eight months before departure and book three to six months in advance;
• Travel to Asia, Australia and Africa: Monitor prices seven to eight months in advance and book five to seven months in advance for long-haul international travel.

Travelers who have not yet booked their trip may also consider the fall season instead of flying in the summer to save money, and/or postpone until there is more clarity on the Iran war, Berg said.

“Flying in September or October, compared to the peak summer months, can offer significant savings on travel, especially in international countries such as Europe,” he said.