The PGA Tour returns to Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster Course in Miami, a 7,739-yard par-72 course that hasn’t hosted a Tour event since Adam Scott won here in 2016.
There is water on 16 of the 18 holes, five par-4s over 450 yards, average par-5s over 600 yards, and over 200 par-3s.
This course doesn’t really have a soft spot, so the player who wins here drives it long and straight, hits long irons with laser-point accuracy, and doesn’t tilt on Sunday.
Odds with DraftKings Sportsbook
(with bindings) and can be changed.
A very good bet
How to play Scottie Scheffler
Total opportunities (with obligations):
Scheffler is the best player in the field for pure talent and consistency. He’s in the top-five, if not top-three, in almost every academic-related category, which puts him in a different stratosphere than everyone else.
The only weakness is his conditioning game, which has been penalized most of the time and ranks 18th in the field. It is the softest part of an otherwise dominant profile. Scheffler’s 200-plus yard band doesn’t crack more than 60, which points directly to a course that hits that range repeatedly on long par-3s and par-4s. It’s not enough to fade because his profile is so dominant.
As of February 2025, Scheffler has 18 top-five finishes in 28 events and seven wins, including one win in 2026. He has back-to-back results at the Masters and RBC. (-148) correctly prices a player who converts at that level.
The question is your bankroll risk. The most deserved red flag was a T24 at Bay Hill last month, when Scheffler lost nearly three strokes with his irons, but gained nearly seven at Augusta. That flexibility with his instruments is dangerous, but when building a card, (-148) should not be thought of as a value play but as a legitimate play. The quality of the hits justifies the price.
The real argument for a win (+310) in the top 5 is that Scheffler’s place on this course is probably Top 10. He doesn’t blow up. The Top 5 pays you for something they do consistently, but specifically pays you for a result backed by historical data, at a price that the market has set correctly.
Basically, if you choose one, it’s the best bet, but the Top 5 gives you a cushion. Scheffler is the most likely player to be in contention on Sunday regardless of what number he takes.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 +152 (with tie)
Absolute odds:
Morikawa has the best approach in the field, is elite from tee to green, and has a real ceiling to win. Putting Bermuda is the only warning to back him up with confidence as a straight man, but the Top 10 doesn’t require a putter to be there – staying neutral can get the job done. If the installation is visible, he can win. A back injury has left me in doubt for the past few weeks but a back-to-back top-seven finish has put an end to that. His Top 5 and direct odds are worth it. He is arguably the best fit for a course outside of Scheffler.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 -110 (with tie)
Absolute odds:
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Top 10 +2200
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Top 5 +495
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To win +3200
His prospects aren’t exciting, but if you’re getting decent value for a player who can finish at least in the top 10, that’s worth a look. Matsuyama’s long iron accuracy in key distance bands is among the best on my short list of players, and he’s top 10 from 200-plus yards. His putting in Bermuda is good and he is consistent in the tough courses. The off-the-tee deficit is real (for 60), but his approach combined with his putting quality can take some hits.
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It’s playing
Akshay Bhatia, $8,100: He is the one who interests me the most this week. He is the second best iron player on the course, his long par-4 fairway is a straight game and his Bermuda putting is neutral to good. The only crime, he’s 48 off the tee. If he can’t find the fairways on the water holes, it doesn’t matter how good his irons are if he’s already a step behind.
I say impressive because he won Bay Hill and his Top 20 is +135. But he won by almost 11 strokes with his putting. That is not a recurring feature. The Top 20 follows, the Top 10 makes sense for his profile skills, and his direct price (+5200) is attractive because the market has buried him with these flaws. They say it’s a long shot but the data says the Top 5 is possible. His ceiling makes him a great option for DFS.
It fades
Cameron Young $10,200: He needs to win to justify this price. He looks to fit some really solid numbers, but this course begs for accuracy from 175 yards repeatedly. This is where he falls. He is out of the top tier at that grade. He is very good at getting the ball close to every hole, but not at every distance. At a distance, you lose the edge.
He can still hit a lot of good shots and stay because his overall game is solid, especially on the par-5s, but this setup is designed for players who split with long irons. If you’re betting on him or playing him in DFS, you’re asking him to win in a non-elite environment.
Alex Smalley $7,100: Coming off a T2 in the pairing event at the Zurich Classic after a T14 at Valero, Smalley is a long par-4 hitter, a top 10 in the field. But everything else is beside the point; he’s outside the top 35 in approach, 68 on the long par-5s, bad Bermuda putter, negative on the par 3 … all pointing away from what it takes to drive. The par-4 fairing alone does not carry the full task here. It’s hard to trust him despite strong results this year.
Gary Woodland $7,400: Woodland will be noticed because he won the PGA just a few weeks ago in Houston. He’s ranked eighth off the tee, but everything else is the problem for this course. His irons can be hit or miss. After losing by a stroke in four straight matches, he has now won three of his last four matches. This course requires a long iron game and Woodland does not have it. He is outside the top 50 in strokes gained by a division 3 of 200-plus yards. There are three par-3s over 205 yards, which means almost a guaranteed stroke loss during four rounds. To misplace this without a compensatory game makes him pale.
