PRICE for general milling rice in the Philippines is possible increase between 9.1% and 19.4%, equivalent to P5-P10.6 per kilo, due to shortage of fertilizers, according to the policy issued by the Congressional Policy and Budget Research. Department (CPBRD) of House of Representatives.
The brief, “Seeds of the Food Crisis: Disruption of Fertilizer Supply to the Philippines Amid the US-Iran Conflict,” also warned that the impact of the impending drought could further disrupt the rice market.
According to the study, the poorest families may face additional monthly rice expenses of up to P490.8, which is equivalent to up to 8% of their monthly food budget.
The think tank called these estimates conservative because they only assess the direct impact of fertilizer prices and do not include other threats to the economy.
According to the CPBRD, the increasing uncertainty about the availability of Middle Eastern goods has caused severe economic difficulties. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global fertilizer exports dropped by 97.8%.
As a result, the global price of urea almost doubled between February and April 2026 to record levels.
The Philippines is highly dependent on imported fertilizers, with about 90% of its total needs bought from abroad, according to the report.
According to CPBRD’s economic model, the impact of the crisis will gradually be felt at the retail level in the next two to three years.
The CPBRD said the monthly cost increase of about P490.8 is the least possible impact. According to the report, the actual burden could be even higher if other factors such as rising oil prices and reduced yields due to El NiƱo are included.
This paper proposed a balanced fertilizer mix that includes natural and chemical inputs, increasing crop insurance, and providing direct financial assistance to poor families in limited periods.
Meanwhile, the report advised legislators against implementing strict price quotas or controlling rice prices and widespread subsidies that do not target the needy.
According to CPBRD, illegally controlling rice prices will discourage businesses from importing and producing food, which may increase the problem to real food shortages instead of just expensive rice.
IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique A. Afrika said the crisis reveals deep structural weaknesses in Philippine food policy in addition to short-term price pressure.
Mr Afrika told BusinessWorld that the important issue is not just to provide diversification or to increase domestic fertilizer production, but the country’s long-term dependence on agricultural inputs from other countries in the entire production system.
“The real problem is not only how to import chemical fertilizers from different countries or mainly produced locally, but how to reduce the dependence of the country’s agriculture on imports in the first place,” he said via Viber.
He said that food security is generally organized around the availability of food prices and consumers, but this approach ignores whether farmers control the resources needed for production.
Mr. Afrika added that this dependency is based on decades of policy choices, including Green Revolution strategies.
He also pointed out the shift from a trade surplus in agriculture to a growing deficit following the Philippines’ entry into the World. Trade Organization in the 1990s.
Mr. Africa proposed a subsidy to stabilize access to fertilizers.
“Access to fertilizers can be strengthened through fertilizer subsidies and low-interest credit to farmers without emergency purchases from many supplier countries to build domestic stocks,” he said. – Pexcel John Bacon
