Pirates vs. The Diamondbacks are headed to the underdogs as both offenses go cold in the series
The average sports bettor tends to have very hot or very cold spots. It’s often how you respond to those trends that allows you to build or destroy your bankroll. I’ve been on a pretty hot streak with these posts lately, and I’m looking to continue them. We get a playoff game between the Pirates and Diamondbacks that I hope will extend the record.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were considered one of the teams that will make big this season. They should have taken a big step forward after spending less money in the offseason. It wasn’t like they grabbed a big player, but they made the team better with one of their additions. So far, it has paid off as the Pirates have a 20-17 record, scoring and scoring more goals than last season. It’s obviously still early, but last season this team hit .231 for the year and averaged 3.6 runs per game.
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Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller throws to the plate during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif., on July 23, 2023. (Mark J. Terrill/AP)
This season the Pirates hit .247 and averaged 4.9 runs per game. In fact, they have scored 31% of the runs they scored last year in less than a quarter of a game. Today, they have Mitch Keller on the hill with a 3-1 record, 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Those are All-Star-caliber numbers, and much needed from their second-best starter. He’s made just two starts on the road, and has allowed three earned runs on eight hits over 11 innings in those outings. Diamondbacks hitters struggled against him, going 16-for-85 against him.
It may be hard to believe, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are just a few seasons removed from a World Series appearance. They are only 17-18 this season with a 10-7 record at home, but this is about what you should expect from the club. The Diamondbacks have plenty of hitting, even after trading their two best hitters last year. However, the pitching staff is very difficult.
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz., on July 7, 2023. (Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
Specifically, Zac Gallen, who starts today, is one of those who led off the World Series. Last season I felt like he was struggling because of the trade rumors that were spreading about him. He eventually returned to the team. The problem is that Gallen hasn’t really developed yet. He is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He was the best at home this year, even in years past. He has a 1.23 ERA at home in 14.2 innings. He made only one quality start in three outings. Pirates hitters are hitting .248 over 101 at-bats.
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There are some two-player platform games that you might want to consider today. I will share this before my official play. Most of the time with player resources, I like to sprinkle bet on them rather than place full units. Nolan Arenado struggled (4-for-27) against Keller, so less than 0.5 hits at +140 is attractive. Pirates’ Ryan O’Hearn went 6 for 12 against Gallen with three extra-base hits. I like him a full 2+ bases at +122.
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the first inning of a baseball game in Phoenix on June 28, 2022. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)
For the official play in this game, I like the under 9 runs. Keller is locked out this season. Gallen is a different striker at home. The Pirates have scored one run in two games and the Diamondbacks scored zero yesterday, but nine in the first game. Give me an under 9 for this one.
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