Republicans are staring down the abyss of inflation and fast-approaching midterms

Republicans have been saying for months that inflation is a problem for former President Joe Biden. Now, they’re looking down the barrel of the inflationary crisis they created for themselves during the midterm elections, and the blame game is on.

Inflation rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest mark since 2023. Much of that growth comes from rising energy prices, which have continued since President Donald Trump launched a war with Iran.

Trump and the Republicans in Congress came to power in 2024 promising to defeat the inflation that plagued the Biden presidency. But now they’re at risk of losing ground in the 2026 midterm elections because of their inflation crisis, and they’re struggling to get a clear message out against higher rates as the president seeks a $400 billion White House ballroom and a $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded statutory relief fund for government victims of “weapons.”

GOP members of Congress are now left wondering if their priorities are in the right place.

“When half of America lives paycheck to paycheck, the word ‘ballroom’ should not be in anyone’s name,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., the center who represents the throwers’ district, told reporters at the Capitol. “We should always focus on buying, always. Both sides are not cheating. That’s why we’re in the trouble we’re in now.”

Fitzpatrick’s comments were a rare rebuke of Trump’s priorities in his own party, which has remained close to the president amid months of economic turmoil brought on by the retaliatory tariffs, and now the war with Iran.

And when asked what Republicans can tell voters in their districts, Fitzpatrick didn’t blame the GOP.

“It is said that both teams are broken, so we have to end the two-team system?” he said.

He’s not alone in Republicans warning that inflation will hurt the party in November, especially after years of higher-than-basic spending on Americans.

“It’s not as bad as it was under Biden,” said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., is a frequent critic of the president who will retire at the end of his term. “But I think most Americans haven’t recovered from all of that, and that’s why it’s still a problem.”

Bacon trained his fire on Trump’s inflationary charges.

“I think tariffs are bad policy. Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, they’re the bibles of conservatism, and we’ve broken those,” he said, referring to free-market economists. “We shouldn’t have gone through that here in Congress.”

Asked how Republicans can show the American people that life is better under GOP rule, Bacon said “the president can definitely show that we’ve secured the border.”

It’s been four years since the US consumer price index reached 9% in June 2022, fueling anger among Americans over post-pandemic price hikes. Now the war with Iran is fueling fears of accessibility again.

Household consumption rose 0.7% between March and April alone, according to the latest consumer price index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That contrasts with an average monthly gain of 0.25% in food prices through 2025.

And the national average for a gallon of gas was $4.49 on Tuesday, 51% higher than just before the war, according to AAA.

Voters have been registering their dissatisfaction with the cost of goods and the economy in general for years. Trump’s economic approval rating, meanwhile, has nosedived, with only 33% of voters giving him favorable marks in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. His approval rating on the cost of living was even worse, with only 28% of voters saying they approved.

Democrats are leading in congressional general elections. The RealClearPolitics polling average puts Democrats up 7.1% points over Republicans. Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the House.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chairwoman of the House Democratic campaign, told CNBC that voters are reacting to “broken promises.”

“They kept saying, ‘wait and things will get better,’ DelBene said. “None of that has been true, and people are tired of broken promises. Trump said he would cut costs on day one.”

Not all Republicans have given up hope that they can turn the tide on inflation.

Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, said he expects voters to respond to the tax cuts Republicans passed as part of the 2025 budget reconciliation measure known as the One Big Beautiful Act.

“If you’re looking for solutions to this, which party just gave the largest tax bill in American history?” Nun said. “We got more trade deals than any time in recent memory … we got things like transferred biofuels, that’s $23 billion in economic growth for our state of Iowa, and we were able to say we made the coast a priority, so local economic growth is starting.”

And top Republican leadership continues to present a positive outlook on the economy and the upcoming election.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Sunday he expects Republicans to win in November.

“I’m absolutely confident we’re going to raise a majority,” Johnson told Fox News during an interview at the Indy 500. “The kitchen table issues will determine the terms.”

How Republicans lower prices at the kitchen table during the election, however, remains an open question. Some Republicans have introduced a third tax and spending package this year, which focuses on reducing spending. Doing so would be a tall order, especially after Trump angered some of his Senate allies last week with his ballroom push, allowing challengers to popular lobbyists and the Justice Department’s “weapons” fund.

But most Republican policymakers agree that the most important of those prices, gasoline, is unlikely to drop until the war with Iran ends or the Strait of Hormuz — a critical channel that carries a fifth of the world’s oil — is opened.

Natural resources research firm Wood Mackenzie, in a recent analysis, found that under a quick resolution to the dispute, Brent crude will drop to $80 per barrel by the end of the year. If the crisis remains closed until the end of the year, it could make things worse, as crude rises to $200 per barrel by the end of the year.

“It all depends on getting energy costs back where they need to be, which will include finding a solution to Iran,” said House Natural Resources Chairman Bruce Westerman, R-Ark. “There are still things we could do with reconciliation, but this is just a basic issue of supply and demand right here.”