Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could rise to nearly 50% of pre-war levels within a month if the US-Iran deal can work without major setbacks, analysts at trade data firm Kpler said on Monday.
Washington and Tehran are expected to sign a deal on Friday in Switzerland that will open up Hormuz and lift the US military blockade on Iran.
Ships passing through Hormuz could increase to 40 a day compared to 100 daily departures before the US and Israel attacked Iran in Feb. 28, Kpler analysts said in a research note. About 20% of the world’s oil went through the crisis before Iran began attacking tankers in early March.
Ships stuck in the Persian Gulf full of cargo will cross Hormuz first, analysts say. An estimated 118 Gulf tankers could leave the region in 15 days, they said.
The increase in stranded vessels leaving the region is a one-time phenomenon that should not be interpreted as an increase in traffic, say analysts. The key question is how many ships will enter the Gulf after the backlog is cleared.
A number of ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea for the opening of Hormuz, said Matt Wright, a leading commodity analyst at Kpler. Tankers entering the Persian Gulf could increase to 12 a day, about 50 percent of pre-war levels, in the first 30 days of the US-Iran deal, Wright said.
More cautious shippers will wait and see to see how the first move goes, Wright said. They will consider re-entering the Gulf if the ships are not attacked and there are no mines, the anlayst said. Insurance rates will start to come down once the ships start sailing, he added.
Oil transportation company The Frontline he believes “ships will start moving as soon as the deal is signed,” CEO Lars Barstad told CNBC. Frontline operates 80 vessels worldwide and has five tankers docked in the Gulf.
But there are risks that could jeopardize the reopening of Hormuz. The US and Iran appear to have different interpretations of what the deal entails.
Iranian state media said ships can pass through Hormuz for 60 days without paying taxes. Iran and Oman will control the practice after that time, according to the state-run Tasnim news agency.
But Vice President JD Vance told CNBC on Monday that the US’s expectation is that Hormuz will remain unpaid for a long time.
It is not clear how dangerous the mines are to ships passing through Hormuz. President Donald Trump has downplayed the issue, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress earlier this month that Iran has mined large parts of the strait.
International shipping group Bimco warned on Monday that “the threat of mines in the area remains a concern.” It warned the ships that the security situation is still very dangerous.
“Due to the lack of data and the history of over-confirmation, we believe that the safety situation in the shipping industry is still in flux, and we still consider it a high risk for ships to start moving at this time,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at Bimco.
