In deep red Oklahoma, the 2026 minimum wage battle is getting closer to the ballot

Efforts to raise the minimum wage have been successful in every US state in recent years, with popular support from voters in both political parties. Right now, it’s a red-hot state hotly contested on the issue, and we’re heading to the polls in less than a month as part of the first midterm election season.

Oklahoma’s mid-June primary school ballot measure – state Question 832 – would raise the state’s minimum wage from $7.25, where it has stood since 2009, to $12 an hour in 2027, $13.50 in 2028 and $15 in 2029, with the minimum wage increasing each year based on the 20-20 cost-of-living.

Voters will weigh in on the state’s minimum wage battle in a June 16 special election that coincides with the state’s primary for federal, state and local offices, including open seats for the US Senate and governor due to term limits.

Grassroots efforts to raise the minimum wage have been a long-running battle for government. After a series of court battles and political delays, Republican Governor Kevin Stitt announced in 2024 that he would put it on the ballot for the June 2026 election. For several years there has been controversy, some politicians and business groups, including the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, the Oklahoma State Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business, have opposed the plan.

Here are a few keys to the upcoming election in Oklahoma, which could reveal nuances about how voters feel about inflation and the economy:

Oklahoma has always been involved in popular political issues

Oklahoma is a political hotbed when it comes to raising the minimum wage. Nationwide between 1996 and 2025, voters approved 28 of 32 minimum wage increase measures on statewide ballots, including those in traditionally red states like Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Alaska, South Dakota and Florida.

“I think it’s an issue that crosses party lines,” said Alice Jump, a partner at the law firm Reavis Page Jump, whose practice includes employment and labor issues. “Affordability is a big issue that both Republicans and Democrats are concerned about. It hits the pocket,” he said.

Oklahoma is on par with the state minimum wage, but below the national minimum wage average of $11.51, according to Ballotpedia. An analysis from the progressive think tank the Economic Policy Institute found that raising the state’s minimum wage would increase wages for 357,700 Oklahoma workers — or about one-fifth of the state’s wage earners — by more than $783 million in total. This number includes employees who will directly or indirectly benefit from this policy. On average, eligible full-time and year-round workers will earn $2,322 in annual wages, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Companies entering the business, GOP Gov. Stitt opposes the wage increase

Business groups strongly oppose the cost-based measure. “SQ 832 will put more pressure on small businesses, family farms and ranches, and other local employers who are already operating on thin margins,” according to a spokesperson for the Oklahoma Public Affairs Council. “Experience in other states shows that policies like these can reduce hours, eliminate startups, accelerate automation and raise prices significantly for Oklahoma families and seniors.”

The National Federation of Independent Business recently launched a global campaign urging Oklahomans to vote no on State Question 832, saying it would raise prices, eliminate jobs and hurt small businesses and family farms.

The Oklahoma Farm Bureau says the move “will dramatically change farm job opportunities and significantly increase labor and regulatory costs for agricultural producers at a time when they are facing record input costs,” according to a spokeswoman.

Stitt, the outgoing governor of Oklahoma, urged voters in a recent interview with Koco News 5 to vote against the measure because of his concerns about inflationary factors. “It’s a terrible policy. The government doesn’t need to go into private business and say, ‘Hey, you need to pay him this and that,'” Stitt said. “The biggest problem with the state question is that it’s going up again. It’s going up every year. If you look over 10 years, we’re going to have a higher mandatory minimum wage than they have in California. That’s going to destroy some small businesses, right?”

California lost the latest wage battle at the polls

As the campaign draws to a close, supporters are trying to garner support across the country, with road signs, giant stickers and visits to individual communities. “I remain hopeful that we will succeed on election night and prove everyone wrong who thought it wouldn’t happen,” said Amber England, a spokeswoman for Raise the Wage Oklahoma, a nonpartisan organization that advocates for the voting system.

When the plan to raise the minimum wage was introduced in Oklahoma, no statewide measure to raise the minimum wage had been defeated at the ballot box anywhere in America in nearly 30 years, according to Oklahoma-based GOP polling firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates. However, in 2024, voters in California rejected an increase to $18 an hour.

“Now, Oklahomans will be greatly honored to decide whether this was a mistake or if the inflation of recent years has changed the opinion of the voters,” wrote Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave, in a recent blog post, suggesting that concerns about higher wages contributing to lower prices may create a new source of resistance. A study conducted at the end of April by this company revealed that this program will pass if the elections are held at that time.

Voter turnout could be the deciding factor

The biggest challenge, according to England, is getting people to go out and vote. Independents cannot vote for various government officials in higher education institutions, but they are allowed on the state ballot question. However, it is unclear how that will affect independents and what the overall voter turnout will look like. About 53% of registered voters in Oklahoma are Republicans, about 25% are Democrats and about 20% are independents, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.

Cole Hargrave’s poll suggests 69% of expected voters will be registered Republicans.

Complicating matters is that Oklahoma’s voter turnout is among the lowest in the country. Oklahoma’s eligible voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election was 53.3%, compared to the national average of 64.1%, according to Ballotpedia, which cites data from the US Elections Project and others. The turnout of eligible state voters in the 2022 midterm elections was 39.6%, compared to the national average of 46.2%.

“The challenge is not support. We have the support of all political parties,” said England.

What happens after the election results, win or lose

Even if the measure passes, the Oklahoma Legislature could decide to cut parts of it, similar to what happened recently in Missouri, said Sara Jodka, a labor and employment attorney at the law firm Dickinson Wright. Especially in a red state, the legislature is likely to step in and “capture as much as possible,” Jodka said.

In 2018, Missouri voters approved a minimum wage initiative. However, the state legislature rejected parts of the ballot measure, including statewide paid sick leave. And, even though the federal minimum wage rose to $15 this year, there won’t be another increase based on the Consumer Price Index.

If Oklahoma’s ballot measure fails, the existing minimum wage will remain in effect statewide at the state’s minimum wage level, and Oklahoma will continue to be a “relatively low-paying state,” says Jump of Reavis Page Jump.

Other states like California and Arizona allow municipalities to set their own minimum wages, but that’s not the case in Oklahoma, Jodka said, so even workers in densely populated areas will stay at the $7.25 level.

If that happens, England said supporters plan to ask the state legislature to raise the minimum wage, a prospect that could prove difficult in the traditionally red-handed state. However, England said workers would continue to press for change. “If this measure doesn’t pass, it doesn’t mean we will stop fighting for higher wages for Oklahoma workers,” she said. “This campaign has caught fire and working people are seen and heard for the first time after a long time in this province.

Jump said he doesn’t expect people to move to nearby states with lower wage laws, but some employers in Oklahoma may decide to take matters into their own hands. The fact that the minimum wage is not increasing does not mean that the employer cannot pay more. “If an employer wants to attract talent, they will pay more,” said Jump.