Iran and the US have an agreement. What we know – and what is still unclear – National
Iran and the United States are declaring their interim agreement aimed at ending their war as a victory. But so far there’s no word on what’s actually in it.
The memorandum of understanding, coordinated mainly by Pakistan, begins with the simultaneous lifting of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Pakistani officials. The two sides will then begin 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relief, they told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because the document is classified.
That would leave the opposition more or less where they were 3 1/2 months ago – before Israel and the US on Feb. 28 launched their war on Iran, which left thousands dead across the region, caused a global energy crisis and rocked the US economy with inflation.
Much remains unknown, including whether the deal says anything about Iran’s missile program or support for its regional allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, two issues the US and Israel have cited to justify the war. Another big question is how to deal with Lebanon: Israel and Hezbollah are not part of the agreement, and their fighting could destroy the plan.
Here’s what you need to know:
The deal would get the oil flowing again
Once the agreement is signed – expected on Friday – the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the US will lift its blockade, US President Donald Trump said. The announcement caused a drop in oil prices and a surge in stock markets. Trump said Iran would not impose tolls on the ships’ passage – a demand made by Tehran – suggesting the deal restores the pre-war status quo.
Iran’s blockade of this road, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies must pass to reach markets, has proved perhaps its strongest weapon. It raised fuel prices, made food and other staples like fertilizer more expensive across the region and helped push US inflation to 4% ahead of midterm elections later this year.
The US embargo, imposed after an initial deal was reached on April 7, has cut off billions in oil exports to Iran and crippled the war-torn economy.
Iran and the US are back in talks
The 60-day negotiation period could be extended if there is progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday.
What is unknown is whether this new agreement brings the two sides as close as they were in the negotiations months ago, when the US and Israel suddenly attacked Iran.
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The US and Israel fear that Iran’s nuclear program could lead to an atomic weapon, which is the main reason their leaders have cited for going to war. Tehran has insisted that its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes.
Central to US demands is the removal or dilution of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. Iran has in the past resisted US terms regarding the stockpile, and the big question will be whether the text of the deal clearly mandates Iran to remove it. Iran boosted its stockpile after Trump in 2018 pulled out of the 2015 deal that had limited Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions and the freezing of billions of dollars in assets, which are essential for revitalizing its economy. Pakistani officials said the deal outlines a time-bound process for easing sanctions and the release of frozen goods, consistent with progress in talks.
The Trump administration said its goals in the war were to “destroy” Iran’s missiles and “break its support” for regional proxies, as well as “destroy its military” and ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.
The seven weeks of US-Israeli strikes are believed to have severely damaged Iran’s missile and production facilities as well as other parts of its military. To what extent is unknown, and Iran has continued to fire missiles and conduct drone strikes. Few analysts think that Iran will not be able to rebuild its capabilities.
Iran’s relations with its allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militants in Iraq – appear to be stronger than ever. There was no indication that the agreement addressed a missile program or proxy support, although the final text if it emerges would indicate otherwise.
The air campaign has caused significant damage to Iran’s economy. Still, Iran’s leadership emerged from the war seemingly emboldened.
It survived the worst attempt ever made by Israel and the United States to overthrow the Islamic Republic, with their popular war that killed Iran’s supreme leader and many political and military officials.
Iran has demonstrated its ability to retaliate against the global economy by shutting down the flow and attacking US Arab allies in the Gulf. The effectiveness of that weapon boosted Iran’s confidence that Trump would not return to military power.
The war in Lebanon could threaten the deal
A potential obstacle to the deal is Lebanon, where any conflict has the potential to draw in Iran.
Iran has insisted that any deal must include a ceasefire in Lebanon. After the announcement of the agreement, Israel’s first response came from the minister of defense, Israel Katz, who said that Israel will not withdraw from the large area in southern Lebanon that was taken months ago.
Hezbollah in a statement praised the agreement and said it was committed to resisting Israel “until a full withdrawal is achieved.”
However, the US official said that the agreement does not mean that Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon and that Israel has the right to respond to Hezbollah attacks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the details of the deal.
Israel’s Netanyahu has been weakened
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted of an unprecedented “shoulder to shoulder” cooperation with the US at the beginning of the war, which was launched in cooperation between the two close allies.
But since then, Trump and Netanyahu have been at odds — with the president determined to end a war that is deeply unpopular with the American public and Netanyahu seeking to push forward to achieve his ambitious goals.
Netanyahu has been largely sidelined during the ceasefire talks and appears to have lost support among members of the Republican Party. The looming ceasefire has also been widely criticized by Israel, from opposition leaders and even members of its coalition.
That could bode poorly for Israel’s longtime leader, who is up for re-election this fall.
Associated Press writers Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Michelle L. Price and Will Weissert in Washington contributed to this report.
